789
FXUS61 KPHI 281719
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
119 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
2. A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WEEK, WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD UNTIL THE HIGH GETS CLOSER,
RESULTING IN A DRY AND BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. EXPECT
NW WINDS CONTINUING TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
WINDS RELAX QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
RAINFALL RECEIVED YESTERDAY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 20-30% AND BREEZY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH, THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD
SHOULD SOMETHING IGNITE. AS A RESULT, A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR OUR DELAWARE AND MD EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WITH LESSER WINDS AND
HIGHER RH VALUES. AS A RESULT, THIS SHOULD BE THE ONLY DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES
NEXT WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF
RAIN.
WARM FRONT STARTS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS, THOUGH
LATEST NBM IS FAIRLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 70 IN SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINS MONDAY NIGHT
PER THE LATEST NBM, WITH BEST ODDS ACROSS THE POCONOS. LOWS WILL
MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION NOT DROPPING
BELOW 50.
WARMER AIR FLOODS THE REGION, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, ON TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AS THE WARM FRONT CLEARS
THE REGION. STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN IN THE
POCONOS.
WE MOST LIKELY GET DEEPEST INTO THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND MANY AREAS POSSIBLY STAYING
IN THE 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT.
COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR MANY FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL) FOLLOWED
BY RAPID COOLING BACK TO THE 40S BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WE'LL TRY TO DRY OUT THURSDAY, BUT WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN
PLACE, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN
WILL BE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF PHILLY.
THINGS GET TRICKY TOWARDS WEEK'S END, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRESH COLD AIR MASS. MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY IN THE 40S WITH RAIN, AND IF THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
COLD AIR, SOME MIXING WITH SNOW ISN'T IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOCALES. IT IS, AFTER ALL, ONLY EARLY APRIL... ONE OF PHILLY'S
BIGGEST SNOW STORMS EVER WAS APRIL 3RD 1915 WHEN 19 INCHES FELL,
SO ITS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM TO STILL GET A LITTLE SNOW
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE...
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS
20-30 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z TO AROUND 5 KT
BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
T-STORMS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 PM AS NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED TODAY.
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT BUT FOR SUNDAY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND COULD REACH NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE DAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AND SEAS OF
5-6 FEET.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
REGION, WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS AND SEAS OF 6-10 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
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