024
FXUS61 KPHI 290504
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
104 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WEEK, WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES
NEXT WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF
RAIN.
OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION. WE SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY MONDAY LOOKS
RELATIVELY DRY WITH PERHAPS A SPOTTY SHOWER. THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHWARD, BUT SHOWERS STILL LOOK ISOLATED.
ON TUESDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH
PLACES US IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY REACH INTO THE 70S FOR MANY WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR 80.
IT WILL BE COOLER BY THE COAST. THIS TIMEFRAME ALSO LOOKS PRETTY DRY
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY AREAS NEAR AND NW OF THE
I-78 CORRIDOR.
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND HOW THE ATMOSPHERIC SET UP EVOLVES,
THIS IS A TIME PERIOD TO WATCH FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH SOME LOCATIONS AGAIN NEAR 80 AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 30S AND 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED. OUR COLD
FRONT STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO APPROACH
THE REGION AND BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY AND IN THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT. RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE, BUT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MIX IN,
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH IN CANADA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MORE
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND
12Z-13Z AROUND 5 TO 10 KT, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT AFTER 17Z. WINDS DIMINISH AROUND 23Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. LLWS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH A BRISK LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS.
THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
QUIET OVERNIGHT SO NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND COULD REACH NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE DAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AND SEAS OF 5-6 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS AND SEAS 6-8 FEET AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND THEN CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 30-35 KT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FEET AND WIND GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/HOEFLICH
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/HOEFLICH
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