961
FXUS61 KPHI 290639
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
239 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR OCEAN ZONES NORTH OF CAPE
HENLOPEN, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW.
ADDED A KEY MESSAGE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.
2. A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WHILE RHS WILL NOT
BE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY, THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT THAT WILL BE TAPPED INTO VIA EFFICIENT MIXING. OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY, BUT WILL
COORDINATE WITH FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS THIS MORNING TO SEE IF ANY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED. RHS WILL BE AROUND
25-35% WITH A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. RECENT RAINFALL AND A SHORT PERIOD WITH A COMBINATION
OF BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RHS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR
TODAY'S THREAT.
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE IN, AND NO FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ENHANCING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA AND WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NORTH. STILL POSSIBLE A LITTLE RAIN OR A FEW SHOWERS
OCCURS WITH THE WARM FRONT, MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
OTHERWISE TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY ELEVATE WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY
TOPPING 80 BY WEDNESDAY. THEN COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST WITH A SHOWER/T-STORM RISK (STILL WATCHING ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL) FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY, WITH TEMPS
BACK TO THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND LOW
PRESSURE WAVES START RIDING EASTWARD ALONG IT, RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL LOOKING LIKE FRIDAY. THAT
SAID, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MORE RESTRICTIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR BLEED FROM THE NORTH, SO THE RISK OF WINTRY WEATHER
APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. A FRONT LYING NEARBY MAY RESULT IN
LARGE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY, WITH 50S NORTH AND
EAST OF PHILY AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND
12Z-13Z AROUND 5 TO 10 KT, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT AFTER 17Z. WINDS DIMINISH AROUND 23Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. LLWS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH A BRISK LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANCE OF RAIN.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 4 PM FOR OCEAN
ZONES NORTH OF CAPE HENLOPEN AS GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FOR THOSE ZONES.
FOR DELAWARE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HENLOPEN,
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN. COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HENLOPEN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE SCA
TOMORROW AS WINDS INCH TOWARDS 25 KT, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA FOR THAT ZONE YET.
OUTLOOK...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY APPROACH
LOW-END GALES AT TIMES. LOWER WINDS EXPECTED ON THE BAYS. SEAS
ON THE OCEANS OF 4-6 FEET MONDAY NIGHT MAY GRADUALLY BUILD UP TO
6-10 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
BUT MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 25-30 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, WITH SEAS STILL REMAINING ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE COLD FRONT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ450>454.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/RCM
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...HOEFLICH/RCM
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