048
FXUS61 KPHI 291744
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OCEAN ZONES
OFF THE NJ AND DE COAST AND ALSO EXTENDED TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. CONTINUING BREEZY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
2. A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONTINUING BREEZY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE IN THE RETURN FLOW. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY, THEY ARE
GETTING DOWN INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WHERE THEY SHOULD
STAY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO DRY AIR
GETTING MIXED DOWN FROM ALOFT. WE'LL ALSO HAVE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO GUST 20 TO 25 MPH. RECENT RAINFALL AND A
SHORT PERIOD WITH A COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RHS ARE
THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR TODAY'S THREAT. IN COLLABORATION WITH
OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS, WE DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FIRE WEATHER JUST FOR OUR MD EASTERN SHORE
COUNTIES. THIS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. BY THIS TIME WINDS WILL
BE DIMINISHING AND RH VALUES WILL BE INCREASING.
CONTINUING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE IN WITH
TIME SO NO FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ENHANCING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA AND WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NORTH. STILL POSSIBLE A LITTLE RAIN OR A FEW SHOWERS
OCCURS WITH THE WARM FRONT, MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
OTHERWISE TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY ELEVATE WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY
TOPPING 80 BY WEDNESDAY. THEN COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST WITH A SHOWER/T-STORM RISK (STILL WATCHING ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL) FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY, WITH TEMPS
BACK TO THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND LOW
PRESSURE WAVES START RIDING EASTWARD ALONG IT, RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL LOOKING LIKE FRIDAY. THAT
SAID, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MORE RESTRICTIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR BLEED FROM THE NORTH, SO THE RISK OF WINTRY WEATHER
APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. A FRONT LYING NEARBY MAY RESULT IN
LARGE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY, WITH 50S NORTH AND
EAST OF PHILLY AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING EARLY AROUND 23Z TO 5-10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SW. LLWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A BRISK LOW-LEVEL
JET OVERHEAD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANCE OF RAIN.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 4 PM FOR ALL OF
OUR OCEAN ZONES AS SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY THIS TIME. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND THEN COME BACK UP AGAIN MONDAY SO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BEYOND. SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY LATER MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ON THE
OCEAN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH
MAY APPROACH LOW-END GALES AT TIMES. LOWER WINDS EXPECTED ON THE
BAYS. SEAS ON THE OCEANS OF 4-6 FEET MONDAY NIGHT MAY GRADUALLY
BUILD UP TO 6-10 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BUT MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 25-30 KTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH SEAS STILL REMAINING ELEVATED
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
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