262
FXUS61 KPHI 300106
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
906 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID-WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID-
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATION OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RISE
INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOW 60S FOR MOST, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND NEAR THE COAST. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE
OCCURS AND THE SHOWERS HOLD OFF LONGER, SOME INLAND AREAS COULD
CHALLENGE THEIR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 1ST (WEDNESDAY).
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH,
WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30-50% RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MORE MEANINGFUL
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. TIMING DISCREPANCIES REMAIN, THOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
WHILE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE, A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. STRONG TO PERHAPS
LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AND PERHAPS LIFT BACK NORTH
A BIT, REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
SHOWER CHANCES EACH DAY, AS WELL AS A TRICKY TEMPERATURES
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT AND 70S SOUTH OF
IT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. AS OF NOW, IT
APPEARS THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO SET UP FROM EAST TO WEST
ROUGHLY THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO, THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. LLWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
(AFTER 03Z-06Z) WITH A BRISK LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AND THEN COME BACK UP AGAIN MONDAY SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BEYOND.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY
LATER MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH
A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS
3-6 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY, PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT AT 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 KT AND SEAS 4-8 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING EASTERLY AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
4-6 FEET.
CLIMATE
THE WARMTH IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK, WITH IT PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT FORECAST, SOME INLAND AREAS COULD CHALLENGE THEIR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1ST.
LOCATION RECORD HIGH 4/1
-------- ---------------
ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ80/1978
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA81/1978
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 81/1978
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA84/1978
TTN TRENTON, NJ81/1986
RDG READING, PA82/1917
GED GEORGETOWN, DE80/1979
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA81/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ72/1955
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/PO
AVIATION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/PO
MARINE...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
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