220
FXUS61 KPHI 301953
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
2. A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND CREATING A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
SETTING UP NEAR OR RIGHT OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLID OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO, AS A WARM FRONT LINGERS NEAR EASTERN PA INTO
NORTHERN NJ THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER FOR THESE AREAS BY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. GENERALLY, ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NONE OVER THE AREA BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THEIR MARINGAL RISK AREA (ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) INTO OUR NW ZONES (LEIGH VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS) FOR TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND
THAT ANY STORMS MOVING IN SHOULD BE UNDERGOING AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND.
TEMPERATURE WISE, THE CONTINUING SW FLOW / WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT COMPARED TO
THIS PAST MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT TONIGHT'S LOWS TO ONLY BE
GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR
TUESDAY, SW BREEZES WITH WITH GOOD MIXING CONTINUES WITH 850MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH THE +10-12C RANGE BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. NEAR THE COAST THE COLDER
OCEAN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO ONLY GET DOWN TO THE LOW MID
60S FOR MOST ALONG WITH FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THIS EARLY
IN THE SEASON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
MID TO LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND CREATING A CHALLENGING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES SETTING UP NEAR OR RIGHT OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER IN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
SETUP WILL BE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO EASTERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP FORCE THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD
MORE AS A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT. THESE SET-UPS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
CHALLENGING TO FORECAST IN TERMS OF PINPOINTING WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT WILL BE AND ALONG WITH THAT, THEY OFTEN FEATURE VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS BETWEEN COOL, MARINE AIR TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COMPARED TO THE MUCH MILDER SW FLOW ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE FRONT. THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD BE
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING / EARLY
AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND THEN REACHING DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS IS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING SO OUR
FORECAST HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED COOLER. IN FACT
THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. FARTHER
SOUTH, MID 70S UP TO 80 ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER SE PA INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NJ WITH ANY OVER 80 TEMPS LOOKING TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
DELMARVA. AGAIN, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE FRONT SO IF IT'S SLOWER, EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND VISA
VERSA IF IT MOVES THROUGH FASTER. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO BRING THE
AREA MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE
SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TO BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO AT THIS POINT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY / WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS LOW.
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ORDINARILY, THIS WOULD BE A SETUP
FAVORING A RESURGENCE IN WARM TEMPERATURES HOWEVER THIS IS NOT
REALLY GOING TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE HIGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR
DELMARVA WITH MOST OF THE AREA BEING ON ITS COOL SIDE DESPITE WARMER
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE 50S TO AROUND 60 NORTH WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE OVER
DELMARVA. AS MENTIONED THOUGH, THERE'S INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST BY THURSDAY AND IF THE TREND WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
ANY FARTHER SOUTH THE TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE INVERSION THAT SHOULD BE
SETTING UP ALSO FAVORS A LOW OVERCAST STRATUS DECK THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE PRETTY LOW (POPS CURRENTLY ONLY AROUND 20
TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS). ANY PRECIP COULD ALSO END BEING
MORE OF THE PATCHY DRIZZLE VARIETY.
AS WE GET INTO THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS QUEBEC SHOULD HELP TO TRY TO DRIVE THE FRONT
BACK NORTHWARD BUT LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS DOWN. OVERALL THOUGH, THE TREND
SHOULD GENERALLY BE BACK TOWARDS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH. IN FACT BY SATURDAY MANY AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE WILL BE SOME CONTINUING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT BEING NEARBY BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT
AT THIS POINT.
EVENTUALLY BY SUNDAY THE LAST AND LIKELY THE STRONGEST IN A SERIES
OF LOWS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND THIS
SHOULD BRIEFLY PUSH US SOLIDLY BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS (POPS 50 TO 60
PERCENT) BEFORE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT, WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING APPROACHING 00Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER 03-04Z, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FOR NOW WILL ONLY FEATURE VCSH IN THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS AROUND 40 KT AFTER 03-04Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS S TO SW 10 TO 20 WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE
MOST PART JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION IS THURSDAY WHEN SEAS OFF THE COAST OF
MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES COULD BE AROUND 5 FEET ALONG WITH
EAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
THE WARMTH IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST, SOME INLAND
AREAS COULD CHALLENGE THEIR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1ST.
LOCATION RECORD HIGH 4/1
-------- ---------------
ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ80/1978
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA81/1978
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 81/1978
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA84/1978
TTN TRENTON, NJ81/1986
RDG READING, PA82/1917
GED GEORGETOWN, DE80/1979
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA81/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ72/1955
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
AVIATION...COOPER
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
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