725
FXUS61 KPHI 310057
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
857 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDED TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 31ST TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
2. A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND CREATING A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
SETTING UP NEAR OR RIGHT OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLID OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES, AT
LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO, AS A WARM FRONT LINGERS NEAR
EASTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NJ THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR THESE AREAS BY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. GENERALLY, ANY
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NONE OVER THE AREA BUT IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED
THEIR MARINGAL RISK AREA (ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) INTO
OUR NW ZONES (LEIGH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS) FOR
TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THAT ANY STORMS MOVING IN SHOULD
BE UNDERGOING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND.
TEMPERATURE WISE, THE CONTINUING SW FLOW / WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
COMPARED TO THIS PAST MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT TONIGHT'S LOWS
TO ONLY BE GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
AREAS. FOR TUESDAY, SW BREEZES WITH WITH GOOD MIXING CONTINUES
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH THE +10-12C RANGE BY LATER IN
THE DAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. NEAR THE COAST
THE COLDER OCEAN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR
SO COOLER. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO ONLY GET DOWN TO THE LOW
MID 60S FOR MOST ALONG WITH FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
MID TO LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND CREATING A CHALLENGING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES SETTING UP NEAR OR RIGHT OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER IN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE
OVERALL SETUP WILL BE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP FORCE THIS FRONT
SOUTHWARD MORE AS A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT. THESE SET-UPS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY CHALLENGING TO FORECAST IN TERMS OF PINPOINTING
WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT WILL BE AND ALONG WITH THAT, THEY OFTEN
FEATURE VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS BETWEEN COOL, MARINE
AIR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COMPARED TO THE MUCH MILDER SW
FLOW ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE FRONT SHOULD BE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS
AND THEN REACHING DELMARVA LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS A BIT
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING SO OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED COOLER. IN FACT THE POCONOS AND
NW NJ MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. FARTHER SOUTH, MID
70S UP TO 80 ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER SE PA INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NJ WITH ANY OVER 80 TEMPS LOOKING TO BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO DELMARVA. AGAIN, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT SO IF IT'S SLOWER, EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND VISA VERSA IF IT MOVES THROUGH FASTER. THE
FRONT SHOULD ALSO BRING THE AREA MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO AT THIS POINT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WEDNESDAY / WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS LOW.
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ORDINARILY, THIS WOULD BE
A SETUP FAVORING A RESURGENCE IN WARM TEMPERATURES HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT REALLY GOING TO BE THE CASE DUE TO THE HIGH LINGERING
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
STALLED NEAR DELMARVA WITH MOST OF THE AREA BEING ON ITS COOL
SIDE DESPITE WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 50S TO AROUND 60 NORTH WITH
SOME 70S POSSIBLE OVER DELMARVA. AS MENTIONED THOUGH, THERE'S
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY AND IF THE
TREND WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE ANY FARTHER SOUTH THE
TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE INVERSION THAT SHOULD BE SETTING UP ALSO
FAVORS A LOW OVERCAST STRATUS DECK THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE PRETTY LOW (POPS CURRENTLY ONLY AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS). ANY PRECIP COULD ALSO END BEING MORE OF THE PATCHY
DRIZZLE VARIETY.
AS WE GET INTO THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS QUEBEC SHOULD HELP TO TRY TO DRIVE THE FRONT
BACK NORTHWARD BUT LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS DOWN. OVERALL THOUGH, THE TREND
SHOULD GENERALLY BE BACK TOWARDS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH. IN FACT BY SATURDAY MANY AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE WILL BE SOME CONTINUING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT BEING NEARBY BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT
AT THIS POINT.
EVENTUALLY BY SUNDAY THE LAST AND LIKELY THE STRONGEST IN A
SERIES OF LOWS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA AND THIS SHOULD BRIEFLY PUSH US SOLIDLY BACK INTO THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE STORMS (POPS 50 TO 60 PERCENT) BEFORE A SLOW
DRYING TREND FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
PRIMARILY AFTER 03-04Z FOR ALL LEHIGH VALLEY AND I-95 TERMINALS.
AS A RESULT, HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY VCSH IN THESE AREAS. A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7-12 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS
AROUND 40-45 KT BETWEEN 02-12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AT
KRDG/KABE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
OF VCSH AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL LARGELY RANGE BETWEEN 4-7 FEET. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OUTSIDE
OF SCA CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE
MOST PART JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION IS THURSDAY WHEN SEAS OFF THE COAST OF
MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES COULD BE AROUND 5 FEET ALONG WITH
EAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
THE WARMTH IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST, SOME INLAND AREAS
COULD CHALLENGE THEIR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY (MARCH
31) AND WEDNESDAY (APRIL 1).
LOCATION RECORD HIGH 3/31
-------- ---------------
ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 85/1979
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA 82/2025
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 82/1998
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA 86/1998
TTN TRENTON, NJ 84/1910
RDG READING, PA 86/1998
GED GEORGETOWN, DE 82/1998
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA 81/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ 73/1936
LOCATION RECORD WARMEST LOW 3/31
-------- ---------------
ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 58/1998
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA 61/1998
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 57/1979
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA 52/1981
TTN TRENTON, NJ 60/1998
RDG READING, PA 57/1998
GED GEORGETOWN, DE 64/1998
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA 51/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ 56/1998
LOCATION RECORD HIGH 4/1
-------- ---------------
ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 80/1978
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA 81/1978
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 81/1978
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA 84/1978
TTN TRENTON, NJ 81/1986
RDG READING, PA 82/1917
GED GEORGETOWN, DE 80/1979
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA 81/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ 72/1955
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA
MARINE...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
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