098
FXUS61 KPHI 310712
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
312 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ENDED BY A
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2. A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
3. TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ENDED BY A COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLID OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUING SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS MORNING
TO GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN. GENERALLY, ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO NONE OVER THE AREA BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED THEIR MARINGAL RISK AREA
(ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) IN OUR NW ZONES (LEIGH VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS) FOR TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, EXPECT THAT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THAT ANY
STORMS MOVING IN SHOULD BE UNDERGOING AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE 80 IN MUCH OF THE REGION,
SAVE THE COASTAL STRIP AND HIGHER TERRAIN, AND RECORDS ARE NOT
TOO HIGH TODAY, SO SOME MAY BE TIED/BROKEN. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR RECORDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT STARTS SLIPPING TOWARD US FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT IN
BETWEEN, A VERY MILD NIGHT AWAITS TONIGHT, WITH ANY CONVECTION
DYING OUT. SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
FRONT MAY START SLIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, AND THAT WILL MAKE THE TEMP FORECAST TRICKY.
SOUTHERN LOCALES IN THE DELMARVA HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT ENDING UP
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY, WHILE NEAR PHILLY THE ODDS ARE
CLOSER TO 50-50, AND UP BY THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NJ,
THE ODDS FAVOR TODAY BEING WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. IN ANY CASE,
WE'LL RETURN TO AT LEAST NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
APRIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN MAY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT AS THE FRONT MAY
UNDERCUT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION, THE ODDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE LOOKING MEDIOCRE. WE HAVE JUST A LITTLE AREA OF
MARGINAL RISK FROM THE SPC ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN ZONES FOR
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THIS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
OUR COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY STALLS NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. IT WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT WILL
STRUGGLE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. THE RESULT WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT, HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. IT WILL BE COOLER
BY THE COAST. ON THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS DUE TO
THE FRONT BEING NEARBY. OVERALL, THE DAY LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH
THE CHANCE (20-30%) OF SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO TRY TO MOVE
NORTHWARD BUT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK TO FULLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH
RETREATS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE
LOW 40S TO MID 50S. AS THE FRONT REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
REGION, A LARGE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.
BY FRIDAY, THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY. HIGHS
REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOME CLOUDS
LINGERING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. WE
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. IT IS ALSO ANOTHER
DAY WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.
THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, HIGHS
ARE IN THE 70S FOR MANY SPOTS WITH 60S IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG
THE COAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LOWS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S. ON MONDAY HIGHS REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FOR ALL LEHIGH VALLEY AND I-95 TERMINALS. AS A RESULT,
HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY VCSH IN THESE AREAS. A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7-12 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS AROUND 40-45
KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AT
KRDG/KABE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
OF VCSH AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS SOUTHWEST
5-10 KTS WITH THE RETURN OF SW LLWS OF 40-45 KTS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL
LARGELY RANGE BETWEEN 4-7 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT, OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
OUTSIDE OF SCA CONDITIONS. GENERALLY SUB-SCA WINDS ON THE
DELAWARE BAY. WINDS RELAX A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED, AND THE RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CLIMATE
THE WARMTH IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST, SOME INLAND AREAS
COULD CHALLENGE THEIR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY (MARCH
31) AND WEDNESDAY (APRIL 1).
LOCATION RECORD HIGH 3/31
-------- ---------------
ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 85/1979
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA 82/2025
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 82/1998
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA 86/1998
TTN TRENTON, NJ 84/1910
RDG READING, PA 86/1998
GED GEORGETOWN, DE 82/1998
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA 81/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ 73/1936
LOCATION RECORD WARMEST LOW 3/31
-------- ---------------
ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 58/1998
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA 61/1998
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 57/1979
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA 52/1981
TTN TRENTON, NJ 60/1998
RDG READING, PA 57/1998
GED GEORGETOWN, DE 64/1998
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA 51/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ 56/1998
LOCATION RECORD HIGH 4/1
-------- ---------------
ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 80/1978
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA 81/1978
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 81/1978
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA 84/1978
TTN TRENTON, NJ 81/1986
RDG READING, PA 82/1917
GED GEORGETOWN, DE 80/1979
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA 81/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ 72/1955
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/RCM
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/GUZZO/RCM
MARINE...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/RCM
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