243
FXUS61 KPHI 010733
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER FOR THURSDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 7 AM TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE ENDED BY A COLD FRONT SLIDING
INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
3. TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE ENDED BY A COLD
FRONT SLIDING INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS COLD
FRONT HAVE IT A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO
OUR NW ZONES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FOR
DELMARVA, THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE AREA AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO STALL OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS
IN MANY LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BY THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE
RECENT TREND IS MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER THIS MORNING DUE TO WANING
CONVECTION FROM THE ACTIVITY THAT WAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS.
MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SE PA OVER INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NJ LOOK TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG. ACROSS DELMARVA,
VALUES ARE HIGHER AT GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
UPWARDS OF 40-50 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED V
PROFILE WITH SUFFICIENT DCAPE. ALL OF THIS SAID, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF SE PA, ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NJ AND ALL
OF DELMARVA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. ANOTHER
COMPONENT IS HEAVY RAIN BEING PRODUCED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS
PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO TRAIN OVER AREAS, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY IF THIS OCCURRED OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
ONCE WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL POTENTIALLY NEAR
DELMARVA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
OUR COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA
FOR THURSDAY, CONVERTING INTO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND KEEPING
THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND OR EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BUT IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE FRONT
BEING FARTHER SOUTH, OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY HAS
TRENDED COLDER. IN FACT PORTIONS OF NE PA INTO NORTHERN NJ THAT
ARE FORECAST TO GET DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY
REMAIN STUCK IN THE 40S FOR THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER SE PA INTO SOUTHERN NJ BUT EVEN
THESE TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE'S SOME
GUIDANCE THAT'S EVEN COOLER. CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER OUR
DELMARVA ZONES, IT LOOKS TO GENERALLY GET INTO THE 60S WITH
THESE AREAS ALSO HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE.
THE FRONT DOESN'T LOOK TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT SO MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT SOME LOW/MID
50S OVER PORTIONS OF DELMARVA. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
S/SW FLOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 70S. WITH A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING
A BIT FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS FOR
THESE COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 60S. CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWER OR STORMS FOR FRIDAY BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS TO BE
DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
WE SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SATURDAY AS ONE LOW
WILL BE PULLING AWAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE A
STRONGER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP US IN THE S/SW FLOW WITH HIGHS SATURDAY LIKELY A BIT WARMER
THAN FRIDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER THE FRONT MAY
WAVER NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES OR EVEN MAKE IT SLIGHTLY INTO OUR AREA
AT TIMES SO THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS N/W OF
THE URBAN CORRIDOR THOUGH WITH POPS STILL ONLY AROUND 20 TO 30
PERCENT.
THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY (POPS 60-70
PERCENT) WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, HIGHS ARE IN THE 70S FOR MANY SPOTS WITH 60S IN THE POCONOS
AND ALONG THE COAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LOWS ARE IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KABE/KRDG. LLWS FOR MOST TERMINALS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 40-45 KTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH W TO SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
KMIV/KACY SEEING WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. DUE
TO THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, VCSH
AND PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED. MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED AROUND 00Z
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND -SHRA WAS ADDED. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT DUE TO COVERAGE AND
TIMING, THUNDER HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT....MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS.
WINDS TURN TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING
-SHRA IN THE TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT
DUE TO TIMING AND LOW CONFIDENCE, THERE IS NO THUNDER IN THE TAFS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM
LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 7 AM TODAY.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT. SEAS WILL
LARGELY RANGE BETWEEN 5-7 FEET. WINDS RELAX A BIT TODAY AND
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 5-6 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS ALSO THE RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT, GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AS SEAS ARE MAINLY 3-4
FEET. WINDS TURN TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHERN TWO ATLANTIC
COASTAL MARINE ZONES WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THESE MARINE ZONES AND SEAS 5-6 FEET.
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WILL BE LINGERING AROUND 4
TO 5 FEET FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GENERALLY SUB SCA WINDS
EXCEPT A PERIOD OF STRONGER EAST WINDS LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OFF THE COAST OF MONMOUTH AND OCEAN
COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
CLIMATE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST, SOME INLAND AREAS COULD CHALLENGE
THEIR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 1ST.
LOCATION RECORD HIGH 4/1
-------- ---------------
ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 80/1978
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA 81/1978
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 81/1978
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA 84/1978
TTN TRENTON, NJ 81/1986
RDG READING, PA 82/1917
GED GEORGETOWN, DE 80/1979
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA 81/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ 72/1955
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/MJL
AVIATION...GUZZO/MJL
MARINE...GUZZO/MJL
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