638
FXUS61 KPHI 011822
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
222 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE ENDED BY A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SOME
SEVERE RISK POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
2. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE ENDED BY A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH SOME SEVERE RISK POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
THE REGION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODESTLY ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A BELT OF 50 KT 500 MB WINDS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, AND IS QUICKLY
SURGING SOUTHWARD. IT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING
WITH NUMEROUS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY
RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WHICH REMAIN IN THE 60S
AND 70S. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY CHALLENGE RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PA, SOUTHERN NJ, AND THE DELMARVA. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT ARE IN PLACE, WITH SOME
STRENGTHENING EXPECTED NEAR SUNSET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE PARAMETER SPACE IN PLACE, SOME SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS, THOUGH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL NEAR ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SEVERE RISK IS HIGHEST OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PA, SOUTHERN NJ, AND
DELMARVA, WITH MUCH LOWER RISK TO THE NORTH.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH COVERAGE GRADUALLY WANING.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH 50S IN DELMARVA WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR THE LATEST.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST NEAR IT. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN PA AND NJ, WITH 60S TO NEAR 70
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT SETS UP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY EVENING WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PULL THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, AND THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY OR SO. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE, AND WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG. THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA PASSES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S BOTH DAYS.
A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION, AND
THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST,
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA, IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN BY SOME 10 DEGREES OR SO COMPARED
TO SATURDAY, AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS, MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...PRIMARILY VFR. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SCATTERED STORMS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KRDG, KABE, AND
THE I-95 TERMINALS AFTER 23Z. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KT TRENDING TOWARDS NORTHWEST TOWARDS 00Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT....MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY, WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 03-04Z, WITH STEADY SHOWERS 04-06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE
VCSH IN THE TAF AFTER 06Z FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT. NORTH WINDS 5-10 KT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY 03Z.
KMIV AND KACY MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY IN LOW STRATUS, BR, AND DZ.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHRA AND/OR TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NJ AND DE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6 PM TODAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY AT 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN NJ ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
3-5 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO
2-4 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE AGAIN INCREASING TO 3-5 FEET THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE NORTHERN NJ ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO MARINE ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
A NEW SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PRIMARILY NORTHERN NJ ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FOR THURSDAY AFTER THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY, MOSTLY FOR ELEVATED
SEAS ON THE NEW JERSEY OCEAN WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS RAMP UP AND SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY,
THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS EXPECTED.
MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.
CLIMATE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. GIVEN
THE CURRENT FORECAST, SOME INLAND AREAS COULD CHALLENGE THEIR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 1ST.
LOCATION RECORD HIGH 4/1
-------- ---------------
ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 80/1978
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA 81/1978
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 81/1978
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA 84/1978
TTN TRENTON, NJ 81/1986
RDG READING, PA 82/1917
GED GEORGETOWN, DE 80/1979
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA 81/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ 72/1955
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/MPS
AVIATION...COOPER/MPS
MARINE...COOPER/MPS
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