862
FXUS61 KPHI 012331
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
731 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DELMARVA TO FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS EVENING.
2. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS EVENING.
THE REGION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODESTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A BELT OF 50 KT 500 MB WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD. IT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE STALLING NEAR DELMARVA ON THURSDAY.
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM NEAR PHILADELPHIA SOUTHWARD WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN DELMARVA. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
30-40 KT ARE IN PLACE. SOME CONVECTION SLIDING ACROSS DELMARVA
HAS SHOWN SOME STRENGTHENING. THE GREATEST DCAPE IS ACROSS
PARTS OF DELMARVA TO FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. A FEW STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CORES COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE SEVERE RISK IS HIGHEST OVER
DELMARVA TO FAR SOUTHERN NJ DUE TO THE OVERLAP OF THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY AND ALSO DCAPE. THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES
SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD THEN OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH 50S IN DELMARVA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LATEST.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
THOUGH IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA A
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST NEAR IT. HIGHS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ, WITH 60S IN PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT
SETS UP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY EVENING WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PULL THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, AND THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY OR SO. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE, AND WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG. THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA PASSES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S BOTH DAYS.
A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION, AND
THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST,
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA, IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN BY SOME 10 DEGREES OR SO COMPARED
TO SATURDAY, AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS, MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT....VFR CEILINGS EXPAND THEN LOWER TO MVFR. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ABOUT 05Z,
THEN SOME SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE PHL METRO AREA
ON SOUTHWARD. WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS,
WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...IFR CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING, AND SOME DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS.
LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY IN LOW STRATUS, BR, AND DZ.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHRA AND/OR TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE
STILL ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT ARE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING, THEN A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OCCURS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING AGAIN.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY, MOSTLY FOR ELEVATED
SEAS ON THE NEW JERSEY OCEAN WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS RAMP UP AND SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY,
THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS EXPECTED.
MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ450>452.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/GORSE/MPS
AVIATION...COOPER/GORSE/MPS
MARINE...COOPER/GORSE/MPS
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