803
FXUS61 KPHI 021319
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION TODAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP FRIDAY.
2. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP
FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS TODAY REACH THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S FOR MOST. CLOUDS REMAIN PRETTY STUBBORN TODAY ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE.
OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT STARTS TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR DELMARVA ZONES. LOWS LOOK TO
HAPPEN EARLY OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AND WINDS LESSENING.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FULLY
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE USHERING IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY NOT
SHOWING TOO STRONG OF A SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT THIS CAN BE RATHER TYPICAL
GIVEN THE COARSE RESOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE THIS FAR
OUT. AS A RESULT, ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
AND REASSESSED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS REGIONAL AND HI RES
GUIDANCE GETS INTO RANGE OF THIS SYSTEM. ONE NOTABLE FACTOR
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING MORE CONFIDENTLY IS PWAT VALUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING CLOSE TO THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE
COME SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CERTAINLY NO GUARANTEE THAT WE WILL SEE
CONCERNING LEVELS OF RAINFALL, BUT WE WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOW STRONG THE DYNAMIC INVOLVED WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS. AT THE
MOMENT, MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A BROAD AREA OF ABOUT 0.50 INCHES OF
QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM.
THE WARM WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ON
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY WILL BREAK BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT USHERS IN A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH TRANSLATES TO AFTERNOON HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. AN EASTERLY WIND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE EXTENT OF THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HOW DENSE THE
FOG GETS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND
5 KNOTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHRA AND/OR TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO A
NORTHEAST WIND OF 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS ALSO BUILD
TO 4-6 FEET. FOR THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, WINDS ARE 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3-
4 FEET.
WINDS AND SEAS LESSEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN BECOMES LIKELY FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FEET AND WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS RAMP UP AND SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY,
THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS EXPECTED.
MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>452.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/MJL/MPS
AVIATION...GUZZO/MJL
MARINE...GUZZO/MJL
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