726
FXUS61 KPHI 031416
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1016 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR LAND ZONES.
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED, BUT PATCHY FOG REMAINS OVER THE
AREA UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
2. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY, BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED, BUT PATCHY FOG
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO
OVER ONE-HALF MILE. THEREFORE, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.
THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT TO THE NORTH, AND IS STILL
SOUTH OF DELMARVA. IT REMAINS CLOUDY AND COOL ACROSS THE AREA,
AND ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING, PATCHY FOG REMAINS AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS OF 10 AM,
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHILE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
FOLLOWING HI-RES GUIDANCE, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR MOST OF THE REGION UNTIL 3 PM TO 4 PM. ONCE IT DOES,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE
INVERSION BREAKS.
THIS EVENING, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BRIEFLY DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TOMORROW. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET TRAPPED BENEATH THIS
INVERSION LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
BRINGING RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY, BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
OTHERWISE, MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION,
HIGHS ON SATURDAY RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S OUTSIDE OF
THE POCONOS AND NEAR THE COAST, WHERE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, BUT
MAY REMAIN ABOVE 60 IN PARTS OF DELMARVA. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MAY CHALLENGE SOME RECORD HIGHS AS WELL
AS SOME RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWER CHANCES EARLY
SUNDAY WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR MOST OF NJ SOUTHWARD INTO
DELMARVA TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS OF RIGHT NOW, ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS
QUITE LIMITED WITH THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR BEING THE DEGREE
OF DESTABILIZATION, WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AT BEST DEPICTED IN
MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND PWATS AROUND 1.5", WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5", THOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SIMILAR WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH MID-WEEK. A SLOW
WARM UP MAY BEGIN THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...LOW CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING, WITH VSBYS
NEAR OR BELOW 1SM AND CIGS LESS THAN 500 FT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BY 18Z, AND SHOULD BE VFR BY 21Z. S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
MORNING, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER
18Z OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LEADING TO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND LOW CEILINGS. RESTRICTIONS WERE
ADDED TO KABE/KRDG/KACY/KMIV DUE TO FOG AROUND 09Z. THE EXACT
EXTENT OF THE FOG IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR EXPECTED WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE EVENING
HOURS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE (AROUND 20%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM
SANDY HOOK NJ TO GREAT EGG INLET, NJ UNTIL 7 AM TOMORROW. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST. HOWEVER, SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT 5-7 FEET. AN SCA WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET, NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN, DE FROM
1 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 7 AM TOMORROW.
FOR TODAY, WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AT 5 TO 10 KT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT IN THE MORNING
LOOK TO BUILD TO 4-6 FEET AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY OF 1 TO 3
NM. VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 1 NM. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY LOOKS TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS
UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS UNDER 5 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
GALES POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
ON SUNDAY. SEAS 4-8 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.
WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 25 KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR
5 FEET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING BELOW 5 FEET BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
CLIMATE
A VERY WARM AIRMASS SATURDAY MAY CHALLENGE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
APRIL 4TH.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 4TH:
SITE...................RECORD...YEAR(S)
AC AIRPORT (ACY).......78.......2017
PHILADELPHIA (PHL).....80.......1892
WILMINGTON (ILG).......80.......1950
ALLENTOWN (ABE)........79.......1928
TRENTON (TTN)..........82.......1892
READING (RDG)..........81.......1921
GEORGETOWN (GED).......81.......2023/2011/1963
MOUNT POCONO (MPO).....78.......1928
AC MARINA (55N)........77.......1999
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 4TH:
SITE...................RECORD...YEAR(S)
AC AIRPORT (ACY).......56.......1974
PHILADELPHIA (PHL).....60.......2025
WILMINGTON (ILG).......60.......2025
ALLENTOWN (ABE)........60.......1974
TRENTON (TTN)..........62.......1981
READING (RDG)..........58.......2025
GEORGETOWN (GED).......60.......2025/1950
MOUNT POCONO (MPO).....58.......1981
AC MARINA (55N)........56.......2025
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/MJL/MPS
AVIATION...GUZZO/MJL
MARINE...GUZZO/MJL
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