853
FXUS61 KPHI 031838
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
238 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
MAY RETURN SOUTH AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN CONDITIONS THAT WOULD BE
CLOUDIER AND COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING, THEN WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
2. LOW PRESSURE AND A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING, THEN WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH, AND IS NOW
THROUGH MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. SKIES ARE
CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, AND TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO
THE 70S IN THESE AREAS. CLOUDS ARE OTHERWISE THINNING OUT, AND
AS THESE CLOUDS THIN OUT, THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
TO RISE, AND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIFT AT LEAST AS
FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST GET INTO THE LOWER 70S INTO
INTERIOR NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, AND IN THE UPPER
70S IN DELMARVA.
THAT FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA, AND WILL EXTEND BACK
THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS,
MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER INVERSION SETS UP TO AROUND 925 MB. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION, THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS, THOUGH VISIBILITIES DO NOT LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE AS LOW AS THEY WERE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
WHAT MAKES THE SATURDAY FORECAST QUESTIONABLE IS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, AND WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES, IT WILL PUSH
THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW,
AND THIS WILL ALSO MAKE IT HARD FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED, AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN
AREAS.
BASICALLY, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z HRRR/NBM/CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-195 IN NEW JERSEY AND I-295 IN
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, GENERALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW
JERSEY AND AREAS NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA, AS THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD GET AT LEAST THAT FAR SOUTH, AND THOSE NORTHERN
AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE COLDER SIDE. SOUTH OF THAT LINE, THE
WARMER NBM LOOKS GOOD. THOUGH THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT
ONCE THAT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT GETS GOING, IT MAY GO QUICKLY,
AND COULD GET THROUGH AT LEAST SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST REGARDLESS.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT
AND WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND OUT FROM THAT LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND PENNSYLVANIA. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY AND WILL TRIGGER SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. BUT DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THAT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT GETS, THAT MAY INHIBIT
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE AND A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
ONE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS DURING THESE PERIODS. CLOUDS WILL
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS, BUT SOME SUNSHINE COULD BREAK
THROUGH AT TIMES SUNDAY. NOTABLE IMPACTS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT IN AN OUTLOOK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SINCE SOME OF
THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY ON
SUNDAY, BUT PEAK SPEEDS WILL ONLY BE 25 TO 30 MPH, SO NOT TOO
IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM
19Z THROUGH 20Z. S TO SW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AND AROUND 20 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR INITIALLY, THEN CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES IN FOG AND STRATUS. SW WINDS 5 TO 10
KT, BECOMING LGT/VRB LATE.LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND HOW LOW
CONDS GET.
SATURDAY...UNCERTAIN. CONDS SHOULD BE VFR IN THE MORNING, THEN
CIGS LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW LOW CIGS GET AND TIMING OF WHEN CIGS LOWER. E
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SHRA AND PERHAPS A
TSRA, MAINLY AT KRDG-KABE-KTTN-KPNE-KPHL. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR EXPECTED WITH
LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY OF AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY WITH VFR MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS, AND
FOG ON THE WATERS CONTINUES TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. THEREFORE,
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG
REDEVELOPS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON DELAWARE BAY.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING, THEN
TURNING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
OUTLOOK...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS.
BEYOND THAT, MOSTLY SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH FAIR WEATHER WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
A VERY WARM AIRMASS SATURDAY MAY CHALLENGE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
APRIL 4TH.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 4TH:
SITE...................RECORD...YEAR(S)
AC AIRPORT (ACY).......78.......2017
PHILADELPHIA (PHL).....80.......1892
WILMINGTON (ILG).......80.......1950
ALLENTOWN (ABE)........79.......1928
TRENTON (TTN)..........82.......1892
READING (RDG)..........81.......1921
GEORGETOWN (GED).......81.......2023/2011/1963
MOUNT POCONO (MPO).....78.......1928
AC MARINA (55N)........77.......1999
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 4TH:
SITE...................RECORD...YEAR(S)
AC AIRPORT (ACY).......56.......1974
PHILADELPHIA (PHL).....60.......2025
WILMINGTON (ILG).......60.......2025
ALLENTOWN (ABE)........60.......1974
TRENTON (TTN)..........62.......1981
READING (RDG)..........58.......2025
GEORGETOWN (GED).......60.......2025/1950
MOUNT POCONO (MPO).....58.......1981
AC MARINA (55N)........56.......2025
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...MPS/OHARA
AVIATION...MPS/OHARA
MARINE...MPS/OHARA
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