061
FXUS61 KPHI 042340
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.
2. COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY AFFECT THE
BEGINNING OF THE GROWING SEASON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.
AS OF EARLY EVENING, THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO
OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES IN DELMARVA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STALLED
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE UPPER
TROUGH MAY HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NJ ARE MOST
FAVORED FOR THIS. SINCE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATED
NORTH OF THE FRONT, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
A SEQUENCE OF FRONTS WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. FIRST, THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TODAY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS FRONT.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z/10AM EDT AND 20Z/4 PM EDT. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY MAY CREEP UP INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
AT THIS POINT, THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LIMITED. ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED, NOT SURFACE BASED. THE ONLY
LOCATIONS THAT BEAR WATCHING ARE SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND CAPE MAY
COUNTY, WHICH WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THE COLD FRONT, AND THUS
MAY HAVE A VERY NARROW WINDOW THAT ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL
BE ELEVATED, A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY
MIX DOWN. ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END BY MID
AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT IS OFF SHORE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
DURING THE MORNING HOURS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS),
BEFORE TEMPERATURES TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY PUSH UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH
BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY AFFECT THE
BEGINNING OF THE GROWING SEASON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MON/TUE MORNING WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW 40S
FOR DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ WHILE 30S FOR THE NW COUNTIES (30 FOR
MOUNT POCONO). BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, SO LOWS BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE (SAVE
THE SHORE) AND CLOSE TO 20 FOR THE FAR N/W. THESE TEMPS WILL
LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD FROST. WHILE THE GROWING SEASON HAS JUST
STARTED ACROSS DELMARVA, ANY EARLY SEASON ACTIVITIES FOR OTHER
AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS THE COLDEST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION.
BY 03Z, WIDESPREAD IFR WITH POSSIBLE LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE LOW CEILINGS. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
BR OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
CONTROLLING FACTOR. E WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...WILL LIKELY START WITH CEILINGS IFR OR MVFR FOR MOST
TAF SITES. A LINE OF SHRA OR TSRA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FROM W TO E, ARRIVING AT KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 13
AND 18Z, KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z, AND KMIV AND
KACY BETWEEN AROUND 17 AND 21Z. ONCE THE LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA
MOVES BY, CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR QUICKLY. WINDS WILL
START S OR SW AROUND 10 TO 15 KT, BUT WITH THE LINE OF SHRA AND
TSRA, EXPECT AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO W OR EVEN NW WINDS AROUND
10G20KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT... EXCEPT FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ
OR DELAWARE DURING SUNDAY EVENING, MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED. PATCHY
RURAL FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THRU THURSDAY... VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME.
MARINE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TONIGHT ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SCA HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES WITH E WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KTS.
OVERNIGHT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AGAIN WITH WINDS TURNING SW AND RAMPING UP TO AROUND 20-25 KTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FEET.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
GENERALLY A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/JOHNSON/OHARA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/JOHNSON/OHARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/OHARA
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