488
FXUS61 KPHI 060508
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
108 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN ENHANCED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ON
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. INCREASING CONCERN IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD. CANNOT RULE
OUT THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING ON TUESDAY.
2...CHILLY TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING MAY AFFECT THE BEGINNING OF THE GROWING SEASON, WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...INCREASING CONCERN IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD. CANNOT RULE
OUT THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING ON TUESDAY.
A PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, BUT MORE
SO ON TUESDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS INFILTRATES THE AREA. MINRH VALUES
WILL BE IN THE 30-40% RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25
MPH. BY TUESDAY MORNING, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD. MINRH VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 20-30% RANGE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 30-35 MPH.
AT THIS TIME, THESE CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
ON MONDAY, BUT WILL BE CLOSE ON TUESDAY. WE WILL BE IN CONTACT
WITH OUR PARTNERS AT A LATER TIME TO DETERMINE IF A SPS IS
WARRANTED AND IF A RED FLAG WARNING IS NEEDED FOR TUESDAY. WHILE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS BEING
PRESENT FOR A RED FLAG WARNING, RAINFALL TODAY UP TO HALF AN
INCH MAY KEEP FUEL MOISTURES HIGH ENOUGH ON THE GROUND TO BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHAT OUR FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS ARE SEEING ON THE GROUND. WHILE WE ARE GETTING SOME
RAIN TODAY, MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS IN SOME FORM OF A DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHILLY TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING MAY AFFECT THE BEGINNING OF THE GROWING SEASON, WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE.
STRONG CANADIAN 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NEW YORK
STATE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD, DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S TO LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCALES, WITH TEENS IN THE
POCONOS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE
OVER DELMARVA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE. THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE (50-60%) FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER DELMARVA AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD THOUGH, FROST IS NOT REALLY
EXPECTED EVEN WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO EVENTUALLY
DECIDE IF A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON IS ACTIVE. THE GROWING SEASON DOES NOT EXPAND TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA UNTIL APRIL 11.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
THE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE, LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. WITH CLOSER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
MORNING, SUPPOSE MORE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY ON THURSDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEING THE COLDEST OF THIS STRETCH.
A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING COMES BY
FRIDAY MORNING, CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THRU 12Z)...VFR. PESKY STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BEFORE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AROUND
08-09Z. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF ONCE SKIES SCATTER OUT.
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY... VFR. CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO BKN
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRATO-CU DECK MOVES IN. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 5000-7000 FEET. WEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS. WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10
KT BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR. WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 25 TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN UP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO
THE EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 25 KT
AT TIMES AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE OCEAN BUT
JUST BELOW SCA FOR DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY FOR COASTAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY (70-80%) AS WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...AKL/DESILVA/HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...AKL/DESILVA/HOEFLICH/OHARA
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