137
FXUS61 KPHI 250545
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SEASONABLY
CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IN EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN TURN MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE CHILLIER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST. ON SUNDAY, HIGHS ARE
IN THE 50S.
DURING THE WEEKEND, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. OUR
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE WET, BREEZY, AND CHILLY, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS WEEKEND, FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WHILE THIS MAY BE UNPLEASANT, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL
BE OVER THE WEEKEND, IT IS GOOD TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS A
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT,
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME WET SNOW MIXES IN OVER NORTHEAST PA ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, HOWEVER.
TEMPERATURES THEN START TO MODERATE FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z TODAY...VFR. CLOUD BASES LOWER AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FOR KABE/KRDG/KTTN BETWEEN 09-12Z AND
WAS HANDLED WITH VCSH GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR TO START IN THE MORNING, DROPPING TO MVFR BY THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS MOVE INTO THE AREA. WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF RESTRICTIONS, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND LOW
CLOUDS HANG AROUND. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON
AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OUT. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDS IN SHRA/STRATUS IN THE MORNING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/STRATUS.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2
TO 4 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 6 TO
8 FT. GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS, MAINLY ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS, LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH SEAS OF 6-10 FEET. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
WINDS LOOK TO DROP TO SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS
REMAINING AT 6-8 FEET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND FOG.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY DUE TO
SEAS OF 5-7 FEET. LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
SEAS OF 3-5 FEET BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT ARE OUT OF THE NE AT 10-15 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS 10-15
KT AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ451>455.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ451>455-481>483-485.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/MPS/RCM
AVIATION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/MPS/RCM
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