448
FXUS61 KPHI 260544
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN ARRIVE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IN EASTERN CANADA WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLIER SIDE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MORNING,
THOUGH THE MAIN SHOW OF THE RAIN HAS NOW ENDED AS OF 130 AM.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY DAWN THIS MORNING, WITH PERHAPS A
LINGERING SHOWER INTO THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. IT'LL BE A
WET, BREEZY, AND CHILLY WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE UNPLEASANT, ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND, IT IS GOOD TO REMEMBER THAT
THIS IS A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME WET SNOW TRIES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN FOR THE
POCONOS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN ARRIVE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY, AND SOME PATCHY
FROST MAY FORM IN THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WEAK WINDS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LARGELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER LOW ARRIVES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY IFR THROUGH
09Z. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH 08Z, WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY GENERALLY PREVAILING MUCH OF THE TIME IN THE RAIN.
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AS WELL,
HOWEVER DRY AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY VFR AFTER
RAIN ENDS. NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON PREVAILING IFR
OVERNIGHT, LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING DETAILS.
REST OF TODAY...IFR CEILINGS EARLY SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AROUND 15Z, THEN TO VFR BY AROUND 21Z. NORTHEAST WINDS
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KTS
OR LESS LATE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS
IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OUT
TO 20 NM AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 6 AM TODAY MORNING
DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AFTER 6 AM TODAY, COASTAL
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET NJ SOUTH TO FENWICK ISLAND DE, AND
OUT TO 60 NM WILL HAVE A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT AS WINDS
INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, ENDING AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING. THE SCA FOR THE DELAWARE BAY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM AS WELL. THE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
MANASQUAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 6 AM MONDAY AS
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT EVEN AS WINDS DECREASE.
ANOTHER, SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS WITHIN THE GALE
WARNING AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THAT AREA AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO SCA AND GALE CONDITIONS, VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS IN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH
THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH NE WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AT 5-7
FEET. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ451>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ451>455-481>483-485.
DISCUSSION...AKL/GUZZO/MJL/STAARMANN
AVIATION...GORSE/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/STAARMANN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page