218
FXUS61 KPHI 100000
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELED.
THERE REMAINS AN INCREASING RISK FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
2. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED FOR THE
EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SOME RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE FROM
RAIN TODAY, SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. MANY
OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT FOG, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
RIGHT NOW, THE RISK FOR DENSE FOG OR WIDESPREAD FOG IS
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG
IS THE USUAL SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EAST TO END THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE POTENT WITH THE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION LATER NEXT WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MID- ATLANTIC AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNSETTLED.
OUR FIRST SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE A
STRATIFORM BAND OF RAIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE BEING NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY TOMORROW
NIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WE TREND DRIER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO RELOAD AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY REPLACES THE FIRST ONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST. THIS
FEATURE MAY BECOME CLOSED OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY, SOME GUIDANCE
MOVES THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY.
AS THE PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN, RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE LOW ADVANCING INTO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, IF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND WE GET
A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, THEN THIS WOULD
LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWER TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK
FOR FOG OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS SOME RISK
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR IFR AND EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IS AT RDG, ABE, TTN, AND ACY. WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01-03Z WITH CALM PERIODS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW STRATUS OR FOG.
SUNDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG CLEARS OUT BY 15Z, PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. 30-50% CHANCE FOR SHRA AND TSRA AFTER 18Z.
IF ANY SHRA OR TSRA MOVE OVER A TAF SITE, CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. GIVEN THE INCREASING
RISK OF SHRA/TSRA, WENT FOR PREVAILING VCSH WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY, HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND ANY ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 19-21Z OR SO. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE TAF
SITE BEING DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY SHRA OR TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
PROBABLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SHOWERS.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS REMAINS WAS CANCELED FOR ALL NJ AND
DE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A THREAT OF
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT
THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AFTER 4 PM, WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY LOWER
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/GORSE/GUZZO/JOHNSON/STAARMANN
AVIATION...COOPER/GORSE/GUZZO/JOHNSON/STAARMANN
MARINE...COOPER/GORSE/GUZZO/STAARMANN
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