494
FXUS61 KPHI 152036
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
436 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY WITH LOW 90S
EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY WITH
LOW 90S EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ANCHORS OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IT WILL GENERALLY BE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO MONDAY FOR INLAND AREAS WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR MANY AREAS, AND LOW 90S OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA, INLAND SOUTHERN NJ, AND DELMARVA. HOWEVER THE FLOW BE MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO EVEN SOUTHEAST SO THEY'LL BE MORE OF COOLING
INFLUENCE NEAR THE COAST AND EVEN EXTENDING A BIT FARTHER
INLAND COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THESE AREAS NEAR THE
COAST MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME AREAS INLAND GETTING INTO THE MID 90S
BUT CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC DETAILS BECOMES A BIT LOWER BY THIS
TIME. THE HEAT LOOKS TO BREAK BY THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF OVERALL
HEAT IMPACTS, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE URBAN CORRIDOR
FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NEXT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT SAID, THIS PARTICULAR SETUP DOESN'T LOOK
EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH VERY HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THROUGH TUESDAY, MIXING SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO
HIGH. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT
AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL. LONG STORY SHORT, IT IS
STILL QUITE EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR HIGH DEWPOINTS TO COMBINE
WITH HIGH HEAT. BY THE TIME THESE NUMBERS CREEP UP BY WEDNESDAY,
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS MAY HELP KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOME. IN ANY CASE, WE'LL BE GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE TERRITORY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
OVERALL, THE NEXT 4 DAYS LOOK MOSTLY DRY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ON SUNDAY. POPS
SUNDAY ARE MAINLY 10-20% AS FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MID LEVELS ARE
DRY. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE FORCING
MECHANISMS, SUCH AS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE SEA BREEZE. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BE WESTERLY INLAND, BUT SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST, SO THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD BE SOMETHING TO HELP CONVECTION INITIATE. WE
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ONCE WE GET INTO RANGE OF THE CAMS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY BRING AN
END TO THE STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THAT FRONT IN SOME FORM OR
FASHION, BUT IT'S TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS OR
HAZARDS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER NEARBY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS COULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND AT LEAST INTO
THURSDAY BUT PERHAPS EVEN FRIDAY.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST PLACES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR PREVAILING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED. 10-20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY.
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO
BE INCREASING TO AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THAT RUNS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND COULD REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELWARE
BEACHES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ON SATURDAY, SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 25
TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A 3 TO 4
FEET/9 TO 10 PERIOD SWELL. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RIP CURRENT RISK TO BE UPGRADED TO HIGH.
ON SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 3
FEET WITH A 3 TO 4 FEET/9 TO 10 PERIOD SWELL.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL
BE IN THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S DUE TO
OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THESE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES
CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO
ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MPS/STAARMANN
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