863
FXUS61 KPHI 160924
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
524 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TODAY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO HIGH FOR
THE NEW JERSEY COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND COLD OCEAN WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE NEW
JERSEY COAST.
2. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY, WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED
FOR MANY AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
3. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND COLD OCEAN
WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE
NEW JERSEY COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET OFFSHORE WITH A MEDIUM 9-10
SECOND PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF 2-4 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT
IN A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS REMAIN IN THE 50S, INCREASING THE RISK FOR HYPOTHERMIA
FOR ANY WHO ENTER THE WATER. THE COMBINATION OF COLD WATER TEMPS
AND RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
DANGEROUS, EVEN FOR THE BEST SWIMMERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY, WITH
LOW 90S EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN US THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
AND SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ANCHOR OFF THE COAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWING A SEASONABLY COOL START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S, SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW
WILL RAMP UP AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S, AND IN THE
MID 70S IN THE USUAL COOLER HIGH ELEVATION AND COASTAL
LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE SOUTHWEST BREEZE TODAY WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING
AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LOW END POTENTIAL (10-20%
CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS.
ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AS THE WEAK
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AS
SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
IT WILL GENERALLY BE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO MONDAY FOR INLAND AREAS
WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MANY AREAS, AND LOW 90S OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN PA, INLAND SOUTHERN NJ, AND DELMARVA. HOWEVER THE
FLOW BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO EVEN SOUTHEAST SO THEY'LL BE
MORE OF COOLING INFLUENCE NEAR THE COAST AND EVEN EXTENDING A
BIT FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THESE
AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. TUESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME AREAS INLAND GETTING INTO
THE MID 90S BUT CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC DETAILS BECOMES A BIT
LOWER BY THIS TIME. THE HEAT LOOKS TO BREAK BY THURSDAY. IN
TERMS OF OVERALL HEAT IMPACTS, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE
URBAN CORRIDOR FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT SAID, THIS PARTICULAR SETUP
DOESN'T LOOK EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH VERY HIGH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. THROUGH TUESDAY, MIXING SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
GETTING TOO HIGH. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
ONGOING DROUGHT AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL. LONG STORY
SHORT, IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR HIGH DEWPOINTS
TO COMBINE WITH HIGH HEAT. BY THE TIME THESE NUMBERS CREEP UP BY
WEDNESDAY, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS MAY HELP KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME. IN ANY CASE, WE'LL BE GETTING CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TERRITORY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, THE NEXT 4 DAYS LOOK MOSTLY DRY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ON SUNDAY.
AS THE CAM GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO RANGE FOR SUNDAY,
THE AREA OF FOCUS LOOKS TO BE FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA, FROM THE SOUTHERN PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS SOUTHWARDS INTO
DELMARVA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT FOR AREAS FURTHER
NORTH, THERE WILL SIMPLY BE TOO MUCH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. OVERALL,
THOUGH POPS FOR SUNDAY REMAIN RATHER LOW EVEN IN DELMARVA,
AROUND 10-20% AT BEST AS FORCING LOOKS WEAK. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE FORCING MECHANISMS,
SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY INLAND,
BUT SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST, SO THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD BE
SOMETHING TO HELP CONVECTION INITIATE.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY
BRING AN END TO THE STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
NEXT WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THAT
FRONT IN SOME FORM OR FASHION, BUT IT'S TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE
ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS OR HAZARDS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER NEARBY
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS COULD KEEP
SOME SHOWERS AROUND AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY BUT PERHAPS EVEN
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR, BECOMING SKC. WINDS MOSTLY CALM, IF NOT
FAVORING A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LESS THAN 5 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR/SKC. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12
KTS, GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS BY 16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE NIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR PREVAILING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED. 10-20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY.
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL OCEAN ZONES
FROM 4 PM TODAY TO 10 AM SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND COULD
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE TODAY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
HIGH. FOR THE DELWARE BEACHES, THE RISK FOR TODAY REMAINS
MODERATE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 25 TO 30 MPH
ALONG WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET WITH A 3 TO 4 FEET/9
TO 10 PERIOD SWELL ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY. ALONG THE
COAST OF DELAWARE, WINDS WILL BE MORE SHORE-PARALLEL, RESULTING
IN LOWER BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 2 TO 3.
ON SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
10 TO 15 MPH FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS. BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 3
FEET WITH A 3 TO 4 FEET/9 TO 10 PERIOD SWELL ARE EXPECTED.
THEREFORE, THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY
IS MODERATE.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL
BE IN THE LOW 80S TODAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S DUE TO
OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THESE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN
QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE
SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...AKL/FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
AVIATION...AKL/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/MPS/STAARMANN
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