755
FXUS61 KPHI 282051
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A RELATIVELY BENIGN STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A RELATIVELY BENIGN STRETCH OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
A HANDFUL OF LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FILTERING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PA. QPF WILL NOT BE
SUBSTANTIAL FROM ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 20-30 MPH. OTHERWISE, A PLEASANT AFTERNOON FOR MOST.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WITH THAT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE SOME BREEZY WINDS ON SATURDAY AROUND 25-35 MPH.
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL US, WITH OUR AREA BEING
POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BLOCK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES TRY TO ROTATE IN, BUT SHOULD STAY MORE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
THAT CHANGES A BIT AS A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO CUTOFF GETS CLOSER
TO OUR AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE EXACT FEATURES SET UP.
HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW.
OVERALL, IT WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT AS WE BARREL TOWARDS
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER WITH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE IT PASSES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KT EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
(20-30% CHANCE).
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY ZONE HAS
BEEN CANCELLED AS THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
25 KNOTS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND THE OCEAN ZONES. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET.
SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (50%
CHANCE) AS WIND GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT COULD GET NEAR
OR OVER 25 KT. SEAS COULD ALSO GET NEAR 5 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY, A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND 10-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A
MEDIUM PERIOD 7 TO 8 SECOND SWELL AND BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE OF AROUND 2 FEET ARE FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJL
AVIATION...MJL
MARINE...GORSE/MJL
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