810
FXUS61 KPHI 290451
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1251 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A RELATIVELY BENIGN STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A RELATIVELY BENIGN STRETCH OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST,
WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO THROUGH
TONIGHT.
A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY
WITH ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS
25-35 MPH.
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., WITH OUR AREA
BEING POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BLOCK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES TRY TO ROTATE IN, BUT SHOULD STAY MORE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT BEING SOME MORE
CLOUDINESS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
THAT CHANGES A BIT AS A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO CUTOFF GETS CLOSER
TO OUR AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE EXACT FEATURES SET UP.
HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW.
OVERALL, IT WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT AS WE BARREL TOWARDS
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WINDS START NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT BUT WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH 10-15
KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS 20-25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
PREVAILING VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.
TONIGHT...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH BETWEEN 04Z-08Z
AND RESULT IN WINDS GOING NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
15 KT AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFTS/WIND INCREASES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN PREVAILING VFR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS, AROUND 15-30%.
MARINE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS
DELAWARE BAY AND THE OCEAN ZONES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS OF 2
TO 3 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (50%
CHANCE) AS WIND GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT COULD GET NEAR
OR OVER 25 KT. SEAS COULD ALSO GET NEAR 5 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR FRIDAY, A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WILL BECOME WEST AND
THEN SOUTHWEST AS MORE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MEDIUM PERIOD 7 TO 8 SECOND SWELL AND BREAKING
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 1-2 FEET ARE FORECAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-35 MPH ARE FORECAST. BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET IN THE
SURF ZONE ALONG WITH A MEDIUM PERIOD 7 SECOND SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJL
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...GORSE/MJL
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