526
FXUS61 KPHI 290621
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
221 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES FOR
SATURDAY, CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ADDED A KEY MESSAGE FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
2. POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF
SHOWER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT, AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AS
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA IS LACKING, BUT A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE A BREEZY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GUSTS UPWARD OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
THE MID-AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE ONE PLACE WHERE GUSTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS GUSTS GETTING CLOSE
TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY MORNING BUT HAVE ELECTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. BOTH THE NBM AND HREF
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS OVER 40 KT (WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) ARE
AROUND 20-30%. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS MAINLY IN
THE 30S, SOME AREAS IN THE POCONOS COULD GET ABOVE 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS, IT WILL BE A QUIET WEEKEND WITH A DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT STILL
PLEASANT AS WE GET TOWARDS METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE DAYS OF SHOWER CHANCES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN FROM NORTH TO START NEXT
WEEK WITH MOST GUIDANCE HAVING THE TROUGH CUTOFF AND FORM AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS THE GFS HAS
THE CUTOFF LOW LINGERING JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CMC HAVE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. REGARDLESS, SOME
SORT OF FEATURE WILL BE OVER OUR AREA AND RESULT IN A STRETCH OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. HOW LONG IT LASTS REMAINS THE QUESTION THAT
WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WHILE THE PATTERN LOOKS UNSETTLED, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AREN'T
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS IS THE USUAL CASE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT STILL NOT TOO BAD AS DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WINDS START NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT BUT WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH 10-15
KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS 20-25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
PREVAILING VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.
TONIGHT...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH BETWEEN 04Z-08Z
AND RESULT IN WINDS GOING NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
15 KT AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFTS/WIND INCREASES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN PREVAILING VFR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS, AROUND 15-30%.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY, AROUND 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL MARINE ZONES AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT FOR LATE
TONIGHT, CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE,
GETTING INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
DELAWARE BAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST AS MORE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MEDIUM PERIOD 7 TO 8 SECOND SWELL AND BREAKING
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 1-2 FEET ARE FORECAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-35 MPH ARE FORECAST. BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET IN THE
SURF ZONE ALONG WITH A MEDIUM PERIOD 7 SECOND SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
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