460
FXUS61 KPHI 300038
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
838 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY.
2...POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF
SHOWER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT, AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.
RADAR IS SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NE PENNSYLVANIA AND
SE NEW YORK STATE ATTM WHICH ARE MOVING SE. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
IS ALOFT WITH THE DRY AIR PREVAILING AT LOW LEVELS. STILL SOME
SPRINKLES OR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTH NJ OR
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UP A BIT TO THE 10% TO 20% RANGE. THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN WINDS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
RESULT WILL BE A BREEZY SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GUSTS UPWARD OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
THE MID-AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE ONE PLACE WHERE GUSTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS GUSTS GETTING
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY MORNING BUT HAVE
ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. BOTH THE NBM AND
HREF PROBABILITY OF GUSTS OVER 40 KT (WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA)
ARE AROUND 40%. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS MAINLY
IN THE 30S, SOME AREAS IN THE POCONOS COULD GET ABOVE 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS, IT WILL BE A QUIET WEEKEND WITH A DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT STILL
PLEASANT AS WE GET TOWARDS METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE DAYS OF SHOWER CHANCES.
IN GENERAL, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID-
WEEK, AN UPPER- LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF, BEFORE
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY FORM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST AS IT PULLS AWAY.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO WILL BE
ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT. CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA, CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM 20- 40%. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED,
THOUGH THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE AS TO HOW CLOSE TO
THE COAST THE LOW WILL GET DUE IN PART TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS, A 20-40% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S. A WARMING TREND MAY BEGIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH BETWEEN 04Z-08Z
AND RESULT IN WINDS GOING NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN. A FEW SPRINKLES
AT KABE/KTTN ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND
SHIFTS/WIND INCREASES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT,
SHIFTING TO NORTH BY MID AFTERNOON AND EASING TO GUSTS AROUND
20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH DAY
WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES AS A COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT FOR LATE TONIGHT, CONTINUING INTO
TOMORROW. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT
RANGE.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
DELAWARE BAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS UNDER 25 KT, HOWEVER, LINGERING SEAS OF
SEAS 3-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS UNDER 5 FEET.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS
UNDER 25 KT, BUT SEAS INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY, NORTH WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. BREAKING WAVES AROUND 2-3 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE
WITH A PERIOD AROUND 6 TO 8 SECONDS. IN ADDITION, THE FULL MOON
PHASE WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS,
HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES.
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 MPH. BREAKING WAVES
HEIGHTS AROUND 1-3 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE. THE FULL MOON PHASE
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY. DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER BREAKING WAVE
HEIGHTS DESPITE THE FULL MOON, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A LOW RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/HOEFLICH/MJL/PO
AVIATION...COOPER/MJL/PO
MARINE...COOPER/DESILVA/MJL
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