470
FXUS61 KPHI 300812
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
412 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS IN THE WEAK COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY, AND THE POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY.
2. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
3. A COASTAL LOW COULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. IT
HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT MOUNT POCONO, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ. AS
EXPECTED, RADAR TRENDS ARE ON THE DECREASE, SO DON'T EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN WINDS
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE A BREEZY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
EARLIER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. PART
OF THAT WAS RELATED TO ENHANCED MIXING WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH. HOWEVER, THAT WAS OBSERVED EVEN AT LOCATIONS AT A LOWER
ELEVATION THAN THE RIDGES OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTY. GIVEN
THAT, THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING THE MIXED LAYER EXTENDING UP
TO 40KT WINDS ALOFT, AND THE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH NBM AND HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR 40 KT GUSTS, HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE TWO COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z/2 PM EDT. IT WILL LIKELY BE A
CASE WHERE LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIDGES (AND OTHER MORE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS) WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, WHILE VALLEY
LOCATIONS MAY BE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL BE
STRONGEST AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GUSTS UPWARD OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE MID-AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS, THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND SHOULDN'T BE
IMPACTFUL WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, BUT STILL PLEASANT AS WE GET TOWARDS METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
IN GENERAL, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO WILL BE
ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT. CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA, CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM 20- 40%. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COASTAL LOW COULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
BY MID-WEEK, AN UPPER- LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF,
BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. A
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST AS IT PULLS AWAY.
THERE REMAIN DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE
COAST THE LOW WILL GET DUE IN PART TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW LIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FEWER IMPACTS. A SLOWER
MOVING OR EVEN STALLED COASTAL LOW COULD RESULT IN BREEZIER
CONDITIONS. WHILE MODELS GENERALLY CONTINUED ON THEIR PREVIOUS
TRENDS (MOST DEPICTING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION, WHILE THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER), THERE WAS A GENERAL TREND
TO DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT MOST NOW, THERE IS A
20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD BUILD IN TO THE
REGION AFTER THE LOW LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH TODAY...VFR. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY 10Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. PEAK WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY AFTER 18Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH. FOR KPHL, KTTN,
KPNE, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY, WINDS COULD SHIFT TO NORTH
NORTHEASTERLY BY 21Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 10KT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS, ESPECIALLY KMIV AND KACY, WIND DIRECTION COULD BE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PREVAILING
WIND DIRECTION TO BE NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH DAY
WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH AT LEAST
MID DAY TODAY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 3 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DELAWARE BAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES, PRIMARILY FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
WE ARE FORECASTING A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
FOR TODAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING OFF SHORE, IT WILL
LEAD TO BREAKING WAVES AROUND 2-3 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE.
ALTHOUGH THE DOMINANT PERIOD IS WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO 6
SECONDS, THERE IS AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD AROUND 8 TO 9
SECONDS. ALTHOUGH NWPS RIP RISK SUGGESTS THAT THE DIRECTION OF
THE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE RISK LOWER, LOCAL RESEARCH AND A LEGACY
RIP RISK CALCULATOR SUGGEST THIS IS A MODERATE RISK.
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH BREAKING
WAVES HEIGHTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER, AROUND 1-3 FEET IN THE
SURF ZONE, THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/JOHNSON/MJL
AVIATION...COOPER/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON
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