601
FXUS61 KPHI 301738
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
138 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.
2. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
3. A COASTAL LOW COULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW CLEAR OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MID- AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS, THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND SHOULDN'T BE
IMPACTFUL WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, BUT STILL PLEASANT AS WE GET TOWARDS METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
IN GENERAL, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO WILL BE
ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT. CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA, CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM 20- 40%. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COASTAL LOW COULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
BY MID-WEEK, AN UPPER- LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF,
BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. A
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST AS IT PULLS AWAY.
THERE REMAIN DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE
COAST THE LOW WILL GET DUE IN PART TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW LIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FEWER IMPACTS. A SLOWER
MOVING OR EVEN STALLED COASTAL LOW COULD RESULT IN BREEZIER
CONDITIONS. WHILE MODELS GENERALLY CONTINUED ON THEIR PREVIOUS
TRENDS (MOST DEPICTING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION, WHILE THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER), THERE WAS A GENERAL TREND
TO DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT MOST NOW, THERE IS A
20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD BUILD IN TO THE
REGION AFTER THE LOW LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT/BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT WILL SCATTER OUT
BY 21-23Z. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT THIS AFTERNOON, QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KT AND
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 23Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. PREVAILING NORTHERLY WIND LESS THAN 5 KT WITH
CALM PERIODS PROBABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH DAY
WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES AS
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHERN NJ ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY FROM GREAT EGG INLET
NORTHWARD. AS WINDS DIMINISH, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND UNTIL
11 PM FOR DE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG
INLET, NJ.
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHTER, SEAS COULD AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 5
FEET FOR NJ AND DE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
WE ARE FORECASTING A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
FOR TODAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING OFF SHORE, IT WILL
LEAD TO BREAKING WAVES AROUND 2-3 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE.
ALTHOUGH THE DOMINANT PERIOD IS WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO 6
SECONDS, THERE IS AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD AROUND 8 TO 9
SECONDS. ALTHOUGH NWPS RIP RISK SUGGESTS THAT THE DIRECTION OF
THE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE RISK LOWER, LOCAL RESEARCH AND A LEGACY
RIP RISK CALCULATOR SUGGEST THIS IS A MODERATE RISK.
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH BREAKING
WAVES HEIGHTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER, AROUND 1-3 FEET IN THE
SURF ZONE, THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/JOHNSON/MJL
AVIATION...COOPER/JOHNSON
MARINE...COOPER/JOHNSON
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