551
FXUS61 KPHI 302025
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL 6 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.
2. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
3. A COASTAL LOW MAY DRIFT NEAR THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW CLEAR OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MID- AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS, THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND SHOULDN'T BE
IMPACTFUL WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, BUT STILL PLEASANT AS WE GET TOWARDS METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
IN GENERAL, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO WILL BE
ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER, HOWEVER, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS DROPPING
TO 25% OR LESS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. CONSENSUS NOW HAS TUESDAY
AS THE MARGINALLY BETTER DAY FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS BROAD
TROUGHING ALOFT MAY BRING ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WEDGING
IN FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY AS WELL, MAKING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT OR AT LEAST PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW.
REGARDLESS, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COASTAL LOW MAY DRIFT NEAR THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
BY MID-WEEK, AN UPPER- LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY
FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST AS
IT PULLS AWAY.
THERE REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL OF DISCREPANCY ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE
AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW WILL GET DUE IN PART TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE LOW LIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FEWER IMPACTS. A SLOWER MOVING OR EVEN STALLED COASTAL LOW COULD
RESULT IN BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT COULD. THE LATEST TREND HAS
NOW BEEN FAVORING THE SLOWER MOVING CUT-OFF LOW, AT LEAST WITH
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/AIGFS/ECMWF/AIFS. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE KEEPS
IT MOSTLY DRY, HOWEVER, WITH ONLY A 15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PREVAILING
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THERE DOES, HOWEVER, REMAIN A LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THE MOMENT, NBM
CONSENSUS HAS TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO THE 80S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHOULD THIS COASTAL LOW PROGRESS SLOWER AND REMAIN
NEARBY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE RESULTANT BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT/BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE BY 23Z. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KT AND
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 23Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 5 KT WITH CALM PERIODS
PROBABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
AS BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHERN NJ ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY FROM GREAT EGG INLET
NORTHWARD, AND UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE DELAWARE BAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR DE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET, NJ.
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHTER, SEAS COULD AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 5
FEET FOR NJ AND DE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS 3-5 FEET GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
ON SUNDAY, A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN
EASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS AND BREAKING
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON MONDAY, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN EAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY SWELLS
WITH A PERIOD OF 6 TO 9 SECONDS AND BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 3
FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/JOHNSON/MJL
AVIATION...COOPER/MJL
MARINE...COOPER/MJL/MPS
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