818
FXUS61 KPHI 310825
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONCERN FOR THE RIP CURRENT RISK, PARTICULARLY FOR
COASTAL OCEAN COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR BOTH
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND THE OFF SHORE LOW MID WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
2. A COASTAL LOW MAY DRIFT NEAR THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
IN GENERAL, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DRIER FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH THE MAXIMUM CHANCE ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND 20%,
PRIMARILY FOR COASTAL AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID, MODELS TEND TO BE TOO DRY FOR WEAKLY FORCED
SYSTEMS, PARTICULARLY WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE SEEING ON TUESDAY.
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT, AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. THUS,
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD IF RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COASTAL LOW MAY DRIFT NEAR THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
BY MID-WEEK, AN UPPER- LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY
FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST AS
IT PULLS AWAY.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE CONVERGING ON A SLOWER MOVING CUT- OFF
LOW, BUT WELL OFF THE COAST. GIVEN HOW FAR MOST MODELS DEPICT
THIS LOW OFF THE COAST, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
LAND AREAS WILL STAY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE DOES, HOWEVER,
REMAIN A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT
THE MOMENT, NBM CONSENSUS HAS TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO
THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOULD THIS COASTAL LOW PROGRESS
SLOWER AND REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE RESULTANT
BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL
DOWN.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH TODAY...PREVAILING VFR. A FEW TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL START LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BEFORE SETTLING OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PREVAILING VFR. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD BETWEEN
6000 AND 9000 FT AGL ARE FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR
SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW 5
KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM
SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM
SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO FENWICK ISLAND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
6 PM SUNDAY.
WHILE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS MARINE WATERS, SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AS
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY, THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY INCREASE
IN WAVE HEIGHTS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5-15 KT BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 20 KT
LATE IN THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF SCA CONDITIONS, FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE AN EASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS AND
BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS FOR MOST OF THE DELAWARE AND JERSEY COAST. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE COAST OF OCEAN COUNTY NJ WHICH TENDS TO HAVE A
HIGHER RISK THAN THE REST OF THE COAST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
THEREFORE, A HIGH RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL OCEAN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ON MONDAY, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN EAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY SWELLS
WITH A PERIOD OF 6 TO 9 SECONDS AND BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 3
FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ451>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/JOHNSON/MJL
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/JOHNSON/MJL
MARINE...COOPER/DESILVA/JOHNSON/MJL/MPS
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