117
FXUS61 KPHI 311738
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
138 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
2. A COASTAL LOW MAY DRIFT NEAR THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND OF DRIER, WITH MAXIMUM RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 20% MONDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE, MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COASTAL LOW MAY DRIFT NEAR THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
BY MID-WEEK, AN UPPER- LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY
FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST AS
IT PULLS AWAY.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE CONVERGING ON A SLOWER MOVING CUT- OFF
LOW, BUT WELL OFF THE COAST. GIVEN HOW FAR MOST MODELS DEPICT
THIS LOW OFF THE COAST, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
LAND AREAS WILL STAY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE DOES, HOWEVER,
REMAIN A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT
THE MOMENT, NBM CONSENSUS HAS TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO
THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOULD THIS COASTAL LOW PROGRESS
SLOWER AND REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE RESULTANT
BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL
DOWN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS 6-8 KFT. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH DAY
WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NJ AND DE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF MANASQUAN INLET NJ UNTIL 6 PM
FOR SEAS NEAR 5 FEET AT TIMES. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TONIGHT, THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE
DOWNWARD, SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY OF 10-20 KT WILL BECOME NORTH
TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10-15 KT. OTHERWISE, FAIR
WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE AN EASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS AND
BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS FOR MOST OF THE DELAWARE AND JERSEY COAST. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE COAST OF OCEAN COUNTY NJ WHICH TENDS TO HAVE A
HIGHER RISK THAN THE REST OF THE COAST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
THEREFORE, A HIGH RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL OCEAN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ON MONDAY, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN EAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY SWELLS
WITH A PERIOD OF 6 TO 9 SECONDS AND BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 3
FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ451>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/JOHNSON/MJL
AVIATION...COOPER/JOHNSON/MJL
MARINE...COOPER/JOHNSON/MJL/MPS
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