470
FXUS61 KPHI 312159
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
2. MONITORING A FAR OFFSHORE LOW MIDWEEK, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND OF DRIER, WITH MAXIMUM RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 20% MONDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE, MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MONITORING A FAR OFFSHORE LOW MIDWEEK, BUT HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
BY MID-WEEK, AN UPPER- LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY
FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST AS
IT PULLS AWAY.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE CONVERGING ON A SLOWER MOVING CUT- OFF
LOW, BUT WELL OFF THE COAST. CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS LOW WELL
OFFSHORE THANKS TO A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
REMAIN SQUARELY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, IT IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF LAND AREAS WILL STAY DRY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SHOULD THE SURFACE LOW DRIFT CLOSER TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WE COULD SEE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
BUT EVEN SO, DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STILL PREVAIL.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE EXPECTING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WITH
GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON CREEP BACK INTO THE LOW
90S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND
USHERING IN A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SOME
PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS 6-8 KFT. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SOME
GUIDANCE WANTS TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED NEAR 5 FEET TONIGHT, BUT
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE THE SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 15-20 KT WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND LESSEN
TO 5-10 KT. GIVEN THE GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND OF SEAS AND ONLY A
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR 25 KT WIND GUSTS, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND NOT BE EXTENDED. FOR MONDAY,
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE FAR OFFSHORE LOW MIDWEEK FOR POTENTIAL
CHANGES TO THE FORECASTS FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR COASTAL OCEAN COUNTY.
FOR MONDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME EAST WINDS AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FEET ACCOMPANIED
BY A 2-3 FT EAST-NORTHEAST SWELL AT 9-10 SECONDS. AS THE FULL
MOON PHASE IS ONLY ONE DAY REMOVED, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP BOTH THE
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES AT A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR TUESDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FEET WITH A EAST-NORTHEAST
SWELL AROUND 8-9 SECONDS. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO MONDAY,
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ451>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/JOHNSON/MJL
AVIATION...COOPER/MJL
MARINE...COOPER/DESILVA/GUZZO/MJL/MPS
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