523
FXUS61 KPHI 012152
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
552 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
2. MONITORING A FAR OFFSHORE LOW MID-WEEK, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF IT, AS WELL AS SOME MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE AREA, THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME LIGHT, ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE (AROUND 20%) POPS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WITH THAT SAID, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR MOST OF THE REGION
TO REMAIN DRY, MAINLY SEEING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS. GENERALLY EXPECT EAST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH, WITH WINDS QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE A SOMEWHAT CHILLY NIGHT BY EARLY JUNE STANDARDS,
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MONITORING A FAR OFFSHORE LOW MID-WEEK, BUT
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY MID-WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW. SOME
GUIDANCE HAS THIS OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE
OTHERS HAVE IT MORE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FASTER. EITHER
WAY, AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEING WELL OFF THE COAST. THERE WILL BE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, IT IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF LAND AREAS WILL
STAY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOULD THE SURFACE LOW DRIFT CLOSER
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WE COULD SEE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
COULD HELP COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY MID-WEEK, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST, BUT EVEN SO, DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STILL
PREVAIL.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE EXPECTING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON CREEP BACK INTO
THE LOW 90S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
USHERS IN A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SOME
PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (AROUND 20%) OF A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR KMIV, KACY, AND THE I-95 TERMINALS,
BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WILL SHIFT TO EAST THROUGH 21-23Z AT 10-15 KT. A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE. FEW/SCT AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AROUND 5-7KFT AGL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. EAST WIND IN THE EVENING OF 10-15 KT WILL AGAIN
BECOME NORTHEAST BY 05-07Z AT 5 KT OR LESS. SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE EVENING, WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WIND IN THE MORNING AROUND 5 KT,
BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY. EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS OF
15-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AT
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 4 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE FAR OFFSHORE LOW MID-WEEK FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WILL TURN EAST WITH 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 9 TO 10
SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR TUESDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES
WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. AS
A RESULT, THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT DELAWARE BEACHES AND A
MODERATE RISK AT THE JERSEY SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR DELAWARE BEACHES FOR NOW.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/GUZZO/MPS
AVIATION...AKL/COOPER
MARINE...AKL/COOPER/GUZZO
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