596
FXUS61 KPHI 021607
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1207 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.
2. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
3. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT, MORE LIKE A DRY LINE AND A WIND SHIFT, HAS
PASSED THROUGH THE REGION AS NOTED BY WINDS HAVING SHIFTED TO
MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEGUN TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. DEW POINTS WILL DROP FURTHER BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THAT NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
ANOTHER MILD DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP, AND THERE MAY BE A
NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE, CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER HERE AND THERE, GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. ANY QPF WILL BE MINIMAL, AT
BEST. POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT, OR SLIGHT CHANCE.
WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
BY MID-WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW. RECENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE AGREEMENT ON THIS OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS, IT WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEING WELL OFF THE COAST. THERE WILL BE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR SOME LOCATIONS. AS OUR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIPS TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT WILL USHER IN A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS TO
IF THIS WILL BE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW OR A TROUGH, BUT REGARDLESS,
THE NET EFFECT APPEARS TO BE A COOLING TREND, ESPECIALLY GOING
INTO MONDAY.
AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE WIDE VARIETY OF SURFACE PATTERN
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE AREA. WHILE IT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION (MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN'T LIKELY TO BE MAXIMIZED),
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, RAIN CHANCES OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT
AT THIS POINT SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR THE PATTERN.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTH. HIGH CONFID.
WEDNESDAY... VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. WINDS TURNING ONSHORE FOR KMIV/KACY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY MORNING... VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON... VFR EXCEPT IS ANY SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTMS WHICH
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW TAF SITES (KRDG/KABE).
MARINE
THE SCA FLAG WAS DROPPED JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
ONSHORE WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FAIR WEATHER AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
LOOKS TO BE A GREAT PERIOD ON THE WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SLOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR A TSTM SATURDAY EVENING THOUGHT SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL DIMINISH
TO 5 TO 10 MPH LATE THIS MORNING, THEN WILL TURN SOUTHEAST, THEN
SOUTH, BY LATE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET AT DELAWARE BEACHES. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN EASTERLY SWELL WITH A 6 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AT DELAWARE BEACHES AND A MODERATE RISK AT THE JERSEY
SHORE. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON WEDNESDAY, NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL TURN
TO THE EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND SEA BREEZES.
BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET. THERE WILL BE A LESSENING
EASTERLY SWELL WITH A 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THERE
IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE FOR MONMOUTH COUNTY, OCEAN COUNTY,
AND ATLANTIC COUNTY, AND A MODERATE RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE FOR
CAPE MAY COUNTY AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/JOHNSON/MPS
AVIATION...OHARA
MARINE...OHARA
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