763
FXUS61 KPHI 021839
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
2. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY WILL HAVE AMPLIFIED AND SUNK SOUTHWARD. THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW WITH THE
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. AFTER IT DEEPEN A BIT, IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY FORM
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
THIS SYSTEM, BUT IN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
DELMARVA, PA AND NJ. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY TOO, BUT THEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A TSTM
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE NW COUNTIES.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHORE AREAS
AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS TO
IF THIS WILL BE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW OR A TROUGH, BUT REGARDLESS,
THE NET EFFECT APPEARS TO BE A COOLING TREND, ESPECIALLY GOING
INTO MONDAY.
AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE WIDE VARIETY OF SURFACE PATTERN
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE AREA. WHILE IT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION (MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN'T LIKELY TO BE MAXIMIZED),
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, RAIN CHANCES OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT
AT THIS POINT SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR THE PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTH. HIGH CONFID.
WEDNESDAY... VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. WINDS TURNING ONSHORE FOR KMIV/KACY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY MORNING... VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON... VFR EXCEPT IS ANY SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTMS WHICH
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW TAF SITES (KRDG/KABE).
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ONSHORE WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FAIR WEATHER AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...
LOOKS TO BE A GREAT PERIOD ON THE WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SLOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR A TSTM SATURDAY EVENING THOUGHT SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL DIMINISH
TO 5 TO 10 MPH LATE THIS MORNING, THEN WILL TURN SOUTHEAST, THEN
SOUTH, BY LATE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET AT DELAWARE BEACHES. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN EASTERLY SWELL WITH A 6 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AT DELAWARE BEACHES AND A MODERATE RISK AT THE JERSEY
SHORE. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON WEDNESDAY, NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL TURN
TO THE EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND SEA BREEZES.
BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET. THERE WILL BE A LESSENING
EASTERLY SWELL WITH A 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THERE
IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE FOR MONMOUTH COUNTY, OCEAN COUNTY,
AND ATLANTIC COUNTY, AND A MODERATE RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE FOR
CAPE MAY COUNTY AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/JOHNSON/MPS/OHARA
AVIATION...OHARA
MARINE...OHARA
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