347
FXUS61 KPHI 041918
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REFRESHED KEY MESSAGES AND MENTIONED NEW DAY3 SPC OUTLOOK
CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY.
2. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH INTO
MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND SOME UPPER 50S FOR THE NW MOST
AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. THE PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FOR THE POCONOS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE LATEST
DAY3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR OR INTO THE LOW 90S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SHORE AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AFTER THE PERIOD OF DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS, A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. OUR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND. WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES IN, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS TO IF THIS WILL BE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
OR A TROUGH, BUT REGARDLESS, THE NET EFFECT APPEARS TO BE A COOLING
TREND, ESPECIALLY GOING INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD.
ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS, SHOWERS BECOME POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS SLATED FOR SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS OUR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND HOW THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EVOLVE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR REGION. THIS WOULD BE THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TIMING
IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE VARIATIONS AMONG DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SURFACE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. BEYOND SUNDAY,
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS. THE TRICKY ISSUE IS WIND DIRECTION WITH W OR SW
DIRECTIONS FAVORED INLAND AND S OR SE LOCALLY CLOSE TO THE
SHORE. BETTER CHANCE FOR SE/E WINDS AT KACY/KMIV. A COUPLE GUSTS
15 KTS DURING ANY SEA BREEZE. HIGH CONFID EXCEPT WITH REGARDS
TO WINDS DIRECTIONS.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. S TO SW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY... VFR EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. SW WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%)
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT KABE/KRDG LATER SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE S TO SE MOST AREAS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
20 KTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST
WIND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4-5 FEET. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO 25
KTS AND SEAS AROUND 4-6 FEET. SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3
FEET WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS.
AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE
AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON FRIDAY, WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET,
LIGHT EASTERLY SWELLS, AND A PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. THIS
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION IS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE IN OCEAN, ATLANTIC, AND CAPE MAY
COUNTIES AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE IN MONMOUTH
COUNTY AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/MPS/OHARA
AVIATION...OHARA/GUZZO
MARINE...OHARA/GUZZO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page