640
FXUS61 KPHI 191852
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
252 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THE UPCOMING SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATED MARINE SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND.
2. A SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AS IT RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TOO. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE THRU SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN A LITTLE
FOR SATURDAY BUT MOSTLY AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WILL HAVE
NOTABLE CONSEQUENCE IN SPECIFIC IMPACTS.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY THOUGH IS THAT MONDAY IS CURRENTLY LOOKING WET,
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MIXED IN AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT
VALUES (1.75- 2.00") NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA, SETTING UP THE
RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. NBM PROBABILITY OF 1" OR MORE FROM THIS
SYSTEM HAS AROUND 30-50% FROM PHILADELPHIA ON NORTH AND AROUND
A 10- 30% SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA. THESE NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SOME
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE BUT IT'S WORTH STRESSING THE CONTINUING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. IF THE LOW TRACK TRENDS FARTHER NORTH,
THIS WOULD TEND TO REDUCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT
BUT INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ). IN FACT THIS
COULD END UP BEING A SYSTEM THAT BRINGS MAINLY A HEAVY RAINFALL
/ FLOODING THREAT TO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT TO SOUTHERN AREAS. AGAIN, A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS, BUT THE OVERARCHING SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM. ONE FINAL NOTE REGARDING THE FLOODING, WE'RE
STILL IN A REGION-WIDE DROUGHT SO THAT COULD MITIGATE THE FLOOD THREAT
SOME.
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD BE CLEARED
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY
THEN DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFID.
SATURDAY... VFR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KTS WITH A COUPLE GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE (30-40%
CHANCE).
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
LATER TODAY AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW-END SCA GUSTS FOR THE
NORTHERN-MOST NJ MARINE ZONE. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE MOSTLY
2 TO 3 FT BUT SOME 4 FT SEAS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO NORTH NJ. ENJOY!
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED (80-90%) WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT WITH SEAS 4 TO
7FEET.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER EARLY TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER TAKES OVER.
WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS...
REST OF TODAY, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 TO 20 MPH. THERE WILL BE A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO
5 FEET AT AROUND 7 SECONDS. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE ANTICIPATED. HAVE OPTED FOR A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
JERSEY SHORE AND A LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE BEACHES FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, WHERE FLOW IS MORE
OFFSHORE.
FOR SATURDAY, WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, THE ONSHORE SWELLS BEGIN TO WEAKEN, DECREASING TO
AROUND 2 TO 4 AT AROUND A 7 SECOND PERIOD. BREAKING WAVES IN THE
SURF ZONE SHOULD BE AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS AS A RESULT.
THEREFORE, A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR ALL BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
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