207
FXUS61 KPHI 192305
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
705 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WILL HAVE
NOTABLE CONSEQUENCE IN SPECIFIC IMPACTS.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY THOUGH IS THAT MONDAY IS CURRENTLY LOOKING WET,
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MIXED IN AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT
VALUES (1.75- 2.00") NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA, SETTING UP THE
RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. NBM PROBABILITY OF 1" OR MORE FROM THIS
SYSTEM HAS AROUND 30-50% FROM PHILADELPHIA ON NORTH AND AROUND
A 10- 30% SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA. THESE NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SOME
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE BUT IT'S WORTH STRESSING THE CONTINUING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. IF THE LOW TRACK TRENDS FARTHER NORTH,
THIS WOULD TEND TO REDUCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT
BUT INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ). IN FACT THIS
COULD END UP BEING A SYSTEM THAT BRINGS MAINLY A HEAVY RAINFALL/
FLOODING THREAT TO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT TO SOUTHERN AREAS. AGAIN, A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS, BUT THE OVERARCHING SYNOPTIC SETUP
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM. ONE FINAL NOTE
REGARDING THE FLOODING, WE'RE STILL IN A REGION-WIDE DROUGHT SO
THAT COULD MITIGATE THE FLOOD THREAT SOME.
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD BE CLEARED
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...A BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE NEAR KABE EARLY THIS EVENING,
OTHERWISE VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW-END SCA GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN-MOST NJ MARINE ZONE. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE MOSTLY
2 TO 3 FT BUT SOME 4 FT SEAS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO NORTH NJ.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT WITH SEAS 4 TO
7 FEET.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY, WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, THE ONSHORE SWELLS BEGIN TO WEAKEN, DECREASING TO
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET AT AROUND A 7 SECOND PERIOD. BREAKING WAVES
IN THE SURF ZONE SHOULD BE AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS AS A RESULT.
THEREFORE, A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR ALL BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY, WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH. ONSHORE
SWELLS WILL REMAIN WEAK AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND
PERIOD. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE WILL BE AROUND 1 FOOT OR
LESS. THEREFORE, A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/OHARA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MJL/OHARA
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