646
FXUS61 KPHI 200755
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED KEY MESSAGE 1 AND TWEAKED RISKS FOR KEY MESSAGE 2.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOSTLY TRANQUIL THIS WEEKEND, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
2. A SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND AT LEAST A SMALL RISK OF FLOODING ALONG WITH AT
LEAST A SMALL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MOSTLY TRANQUIL THIS WEEKEND, BUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH WEAK.
PASSING IMPULSES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH AN ADVANCING, ALBEIT
WEAK, COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE ANY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR, THE 0Z GUIDANCE FOCUSED ON A
CORRIDOR FROM READING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PHILLY METRO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND MAINLY NORTH OF I-195 AND NORTHEAST
OF THE PA TURNPIKE NORTHEAST EXTENSION ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 80S WITH SIMILAR HEAT INDICES FOLLOWING COMFORTABLE MORNINGS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY BRINGING THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND AT LEAST A SMALL RISK OF FLOODING ALONG
WITH AT LEAST A SMALL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A STRETCH OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
WHICH WILL HAVE NOTABLE CONSEQUENCE IN SPECIFIC IMPACTS.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY THOUGH IS THAT MONDAY IS CURRENTLY LOOKING
WET, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MIXED IN AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT VALUES (1.75- 2.00") NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMA, SETTING UP THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 1 INCH, BUT AS WITH
THE EVENT ABOUT A WEEK PRIOR, DETERMINING JUST IF AND IF SO,
WHERE, THESE TOTALS MAY END UP IS TROUBLESOME SEVERAL DAYS OUT,
SO IT'S WORTH STRESSING THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. IF THE LOW TRACK TRENDS FARTHER NORTH, THIS WOULD TEND
TO REDUCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT BUT
INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ). IN FACT THIS
COULD END UP BEING A SYSTEM THAT BRINGS MAINLY A HEAVY
RAINFALL/ FLOODING THREAT TO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT TO SOUTHERN AREAS. AGAIN, A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS, BUT THE OVERARCHING SYNOPTIC SETUP
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM. ONE FINAL NOTE
REGARDING THE FLOODING, WE'RE STILL IN A REGION-WIDE DROUGHT SO
THAT COULD MITIGATE THE FLOOD THREAT SOME.
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
BEEN PLACED OVER OUR SOUTHER TIER FOR MONDAY, WHILE A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE MONDAY.
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD BE CLEARED
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER NOT IMPOSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT ODDS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT, EVEN
LESS A CHANCE OF ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH SAID SHOWER. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER LIKELY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
A DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF INCREASED
WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS (25
KNOTS) LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THIS IS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET HOWEVER.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT WITH SEAS 4 TO
7 FEET.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, THE ONSHORE SWELLS BEGIN TO WEAKEN, DECREASING TO
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET AT AROUND A 7 SECOND PERIOD. BREAKING WAVES
IN THE SURF ZONE SHOULD BE AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS AS A RESULT.
THEREFORE, A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR ALL BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY, WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH. ONSHORE
SWELLS WILL REMAIN WEAK AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND
PERIOD. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE WILL BE AROUND 1 FOOT OR
LESS. THEREFORE, A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450-
451.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/OHARA/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/MJL/OHARA/RCM
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