486
FXUS61 KPHI 230025
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
1. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, BUT
HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA.
2. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
3. SHOWERS/STORMS NOW LOOK TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW LOOKS SLOWER TO DEPART.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING, AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT
IS NOW FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW ARE LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY.
2. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR COASTAL OCEAN, ATLANTIC,
AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
3. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING, AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT IS NOW FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW
ARE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THEN THROUGH NJ
EN-ROUTE TO LONG ISLAND GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AT LEAST THE I-95
CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING, THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOW FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.
GETTING TOWARDS THE MID EVENING PERIOD, THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BUT THE LOW LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MEANING MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. IT'S FOR THIS REASON
THAT WE HAVE THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT TO 6 AM
TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY, THE BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS THAT THE SYSTEM
NOW LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP OVER THE AREA WITH THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ACTUALLY BEING FOR A NEW LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR NEAR
DELMARVA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE BY THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA, WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE AND THE SPC NOW HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS JUST GETTING INTO SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE.
LOW PRESSURE WITH IT'S ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD FINALLY
MOVE OUT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR COASTAL
OCEAN, ATLANTIC, AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR THE HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO ONLY GO IN THE WATER AT BEACHES
WHERE LIFEGUARDS ARE PRESENT AND BEACHES ARE OPEN.
ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH, TURNING TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 6 SECONDS. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES.
ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING,
TURNING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES
WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK (LIKELY CROSSING THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY). MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
LATE DAY THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUING FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER WITH THE BEST
FORCING MORE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION, THAT COULD LIMIT HOW
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS WITH THIS EVENT. AS FOR WHAT
HAZARDS TO EXPECT WITH THIS EVENT, THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.
THE FRONT MAY LINGER NEARBY NEXT WEEKEND AND IF THIS OCCURS IT
WOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWER/STORMS GOING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
THOUGH.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOW PRIMARILY IMPACT
KMIV/KACY THROUGH 02Z OR SO. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE FROM 02Z TO 06Z OR SO. OTHERWISE, CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR, AND THEN IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR
VSBYS IN BR. THE STRONGEST TSRA IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF KACY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER 06Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OVERALL.
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN BR AND STRATUS, THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA WITH SCATTERED TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST
TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDS. WINDS BECOME N AROUND 10 KT FROM LATE MORNING ON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT N TO NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWER/STORMS RETURN
(30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES) BEGINNING LATE DAY THURSDAY AND THESE
COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6
FEET. SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
AFTER A LULL, ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO GUSTY N/NW WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ008>010-012-013-
015>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/JOHNSON/MPS/RCM
AVIATION...GUZZO/MPS
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/JOHNSON/MPS/RCM
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