181
FXUS61 KPHI 231710
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
110 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THAT INCLUDES TALBOT
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD, SUSSEX COUNTY DE, AND CAPE MAY
COUNTY IN NJ. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY FOR
TODAY, THOUGH THE MAIN RISK IS OVER OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES
INTO CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ.
2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY FOR
TODAY, THOUGH THE MAIN RISK IS OVER OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES
INTO CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ.
QUICK UPDATE AT NOON TO MENTION THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM THAT INCLUDES OUR SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES...TALBOT AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD, SUSSEX COUNTY IN DE,
AND CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NJ. THESE AREAS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY WHERE SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR NEAR DELMARVA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST, AND
WILL RESULT IN MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE BY THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE WARM
SECTOR OVER THE DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ, WE CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE AND THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION AS WELL.
FARTHER NORTH, COOLER MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHTER
RAINS AND LESS RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, PARTICULARLY FROM
PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARDS.
LOW PRESSURE WITH IT'S ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD FINALLY
MOVE OUT THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK (LIKELY CROSSING THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY). MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
LATE DAY THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUING FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER WITH THE BEST
FORCING MORE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION, THAT COULD LIMIT HOW
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS WITH THIS EVENT. AS FOR WHAT
HAZARDS TO EXPECT WITH THIS EVENT, THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.
THE FRONT MAY LINGER NEARBY NEXT WEEKEND AND IF THIS OCCURS IT
WOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWER/STORMS GOING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
THOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY FOR KILG, KMIV, AND KACY.
SHOWERS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 22-23Z, WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. NORTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 KT, WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE, BUT QUICKLY
LIFTING TO VFR AND THEN SCATTERING OUT AFTER 02-03Z. SHOWERS
WILL DEPART AS WELL. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT REMAINING POSSIBLE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWER/STORMS RETURN
(30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES) BEGINNING LATE DAY THURSDAY AND THESE
COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE RELAXED OVER THE WATERS AND THE SCA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. SHOWERS AND A FEW MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY
HOWEVER, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE GUSTY. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY N/NW WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
MPH, TURNING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO
3 FEET WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 6
SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING, TURNING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND
7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/JOHNSON/MPS/RCM
AVIATION...COOPER/GUZZO/MPS/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/JOHNSON/MPS/RCM
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