339
FXUS61 KPHI 231905
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
305 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS STILL A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT IS A
LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN IT LOOKED AROUND MIDDAY. KEY MESSAGE WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THESE MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES IN DELMARVA INTO FAR SOUTHERN NJ.
2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS
WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THESE MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OVER OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES IN DELMARVA INTO FAR SOUTHERN NJ.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON, LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF DELMARVA. THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EXTENDS INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES OF DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN NJ WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. NORTH OF HERE
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS MORE
STRATIFORM SO NO SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING INTO OUR CWA, IT IS
STILL THERE BUT IT'S WORTH NOTING CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN VERY
IMPRESSIVE THUS EXCEPT FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA. AND
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM,
WE ARE IN A LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND THIS IS
GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE UPSHOT IS THAT
AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT DOES MATERIALIZE FOR US
MAY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. IN TERMS OF THREATS, DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY DEPARTING
SO SHOWERS/STORMS AND ANY LINGERING SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO
AN END BY 8 PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE TRANQUIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THIS WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS EARLY AS
VERY LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG BUT THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TERRIBLY STRONG AND COULD ALSO BE CENTERED MORE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THIS COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY THOUGH AND THINGS COULD CHANGE.
AT THIS POINT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL STORMS IS LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND ON
THE UNSETTLED SIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 00Z. SHOWERS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 20-23Z, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT, WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT TO
VFR AND THEN SCATTER OUT BY 01-03Z. SHOWERS WILL DEPART AS WELL.
NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
REMAINING POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WATERS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION WIND
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST OF OUR WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TO FOLLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
MPH, TURNING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO
3 FEET WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 6
SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING, TURNING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND
7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...COOPER
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS
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