366
FXUS61 KPHI 242149
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
549 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
COLD FRONTAL TIMING HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY DRIES OUT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY
DRIES OUT.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR REGION LATER IN THE
WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY
AS LATE DAY TOMORROW. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, POPS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY ROBUST, BUT THE FORCING DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG AND COULD ALSO BE CENTERED MORE
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY THOUGH AND THINGS COULD
CHANGE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT, BECOMING W-NW 5 TO 10 KT AFTER 21Z. 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. W TO NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT IN THE EVENING,
BECOMING LGT/VRB BY 04Z, EXCEPT W AROUND 5 KT AFTER 00Z, THEN S
AFTER 06Z AT KPHL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR. A SHRA OR TSRA MAY IMPACT KRDG/KABE AFTER 21Z.
S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT IN THE MORNING, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER 18Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED, SUB- VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH
PRECIPITATION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
TONIGHT, AND THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ON THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE NORTH
OF BARNEGAT LIGHT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR THURSDAY, BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
NEAR 10-15 MPH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES.
ON FRIDAY, SIMILAR SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER, MAINLY NEAR 10 MPH. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MPS
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MPS/STAARMANN
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