153
FXUS61 KPHI 242325
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
725 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY DRIES OUT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY
DRIES OUT.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR REGION LATER IN THE
WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY
AS LATE DAY TOMORROW. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, POPS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY ROBUST, BUT THE FORCING DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG AND COULD ALSO BE CENTERED MORE
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY THOUGH AND THINGS COULD
CHANGE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KT EARLY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 03Z AT
ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z. A STRAY RAIN SHOWER MAY OCCUR
AT KRDG/KABE AFTER 22Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED, SUB- VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH
PRECIPITATION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN SOUTH WINDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE NORTH OF BARNEGAT LIGHT LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR THURSDAY, BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
NEAR 10-15 MPH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES.
ON FRIDAY, SIMILAR SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER, MAINLY NEAR 10 MPH. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DESILVA/KRUZDLO/MPS
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MPS/STAARMANN
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