216
FXUS61 KPHI 250536
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
MAINLY IN EAST/NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING, CONTINUING AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY DRIES OUT.
2. HEAT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING,
CONTINUING AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY DRIES OUT.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A S/W DISTURBANCE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA, ESPECIALLY
NEAR/NORTH OF I-78, TOWARD MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING LOCALLY THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH AS TO NOT CAUSE AN WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS
BEING SAID, DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY
SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATE INTO THE NIGHT.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MEAGER, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO QUITE LOW. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL/ERN PA AND FAR
NORTHERN NJ LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY
WITHERS INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
NORTH/WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING S/W AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISO
ACTIVITY, BUT MOST OF THE DAYTIME MAY END UP BEING MAINLY DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS, SHOULD INCREASE LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER S/W AS THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY SAGS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-78, AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY SHIFTS S AND CLEARS THE REGION INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH STILL AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A STEADY SIGNAL FOR PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CONUS
BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY THERE ARE STILL SOME
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. A
FEW MID CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABE. LIGHT/VRB WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE FROM DIURNALLY-DRIVEN VFR CU. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z. ISO/SCT SHRA WILL DRIFT INTO THE
REGION LATE EVENING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. SUPPOSE A BRIEF TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT... ISO/SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT KRDG,
KABE, AND KTTN IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 06Z. SPOTTY TS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THESE SITES. BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WIND 5-10KTS BECOMING LIGHT AT LESS THAN
5KTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND MAINTENANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH PRECIPITATION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAYTIME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT POSSIBLE NORTH OF BARNEGAT LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 TO 3 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR THURSDAY, BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
NEAR 10-15 MPH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES.
ON FRIDAY, SIMILAR SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER, MAINLY NEAR 10 MPH. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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