578
FXUS61 KPHI 251746
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
146 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT, SLOWLY CROSSING THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
2. HEAT BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL IN THE 90S, WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, SLOWLY CROSSING THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, AND WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT OR SO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE LOWER
60S. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO QUITE LOW.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
LOW PRESSURE DRAGS THAT COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND LOW PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME ARE
EXPECTED. IN GENERAL, 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, AND CONDITIONS DRY
OUT FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL IN THE 90S, WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE 90S AND MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
13Z/25 NBM HAS A 50 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH AS HIGH AS
80 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF DELMARVA ON FRIDAY.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A CATEGORY 2 (MODERATE)
TO CATEGORY 3 (MAJOR) RISK FOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS FOR NEW JERSEY,
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, AND DELMARVA FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS GUSTS
OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. WILL BEGIN WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS BY 04Z, WITH PROB30 FOR SHOWERS THROUGH 10Z, FOR
RDG/ABE/TTN. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PHL/PNE, BUT
MOST ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE PHILADELPHIA
AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL
KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AS GUSTS DROP OFF BY SUNSET, THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST PLACES.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND MAINTENANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS ANY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 12Z/13Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST,
THEN WEST, THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10
KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN LOW
CIGS/SHRA/SCATTERED TSRA/BR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NSW.
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
MAY GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH A BRIEF GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TODAY, TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND FOG
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND
PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST SWELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR
10-15 MPH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON FRIDAY, SIMILAR SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER, MAINLY NEAR 10 MPH. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPS
AVIATION...MPS/ROBERTSON
MARINE...MPS/ROBERTSON
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