308
FXUS61 KPHI 251815
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
215 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, SLOWLY CROSSING THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
2. HEAT BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL IN THE 90S, WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, SLOWLY CROSSING THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ONE
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, THEN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, AND WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE
HUDSON VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING, BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT OR
SO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP
INTO THE LOWER 60S. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW,
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
ALSO QUITE LOW.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
LOW PRESSURE DRAGS THAT COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND LOW PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME ARE
EXPECTED. IN GENERAL, 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, AND
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL IN THE 90S, WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE 90S
AND MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
13Z/25 NBM HAS A 50 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
THOUGH AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF DELMARVA ON FRIDAY.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A CATEGORY 2
(MODERATE) TO CATEGORY 3 (MAJOR) RISK FOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS
FOR NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, AND DELMARVA FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS GUSTS
OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. WILL BEGIN WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS BY 04Z, WITH PROB30 FOR SHOWERS THROUGH 10Z, FOR
RDG/ABE/TTN. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PHL/PNE, BUT
MOST ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE PHILADELPHIA
AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL
KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AS GUSTS DROP OFF BY SUNSET, THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST PLACES.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND MAINTENANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS ANY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 12Z/13Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST,
THEN WEST, THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10
KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN LOW
CIGS/SHRA/SCATTERED TSRA/BR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NSW.
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
MAY GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH A BRIEF GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TODAY, TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, AND FOG
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND
PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST SWELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR
10-15 MPH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON FRIDAY, SIMILAR SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER, MAINLY NEAR 10 MPH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPS
AVIATION...MPS/ROBERTSON
MARINE...MPS/ROBERTSON
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