399
FXUS61 KPHI 100034
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
834 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRIMMED BACK FLOOD WATCH FURTHER AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY.
2) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
3) DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ROBUST RAINMAKERS THIS EVENING, BUT A
BIT LESS ACTIVE AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER. IN ANY CASE, STILL
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO MOSTLY END BY 10 PM FOR ALL, WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT
ON TAP FOR THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, THE
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S, POSSIBLY TOUCHING
100.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TOUCHING OFF ANOTHER ROUND
OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2 FOR MORE).
KEY MESSAGE 2...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BY FRIDAY EVENING, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SIMILARLY TO THURSDAY, MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES. THIS SUPPORTS THAT ANY GIVEN
SHOWER OR STORM WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. AS OF NOW, THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN AN MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
HELD OFF ON EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL TODAY.
IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, ML CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
AT LEAST 1000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-35 KT. GIVEN
BETTER FRONTAL FORCING, THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. AS OF THE 1730UTC/DAY 2 UPDATE, SPC HAS UPGRADED THE
MAJORITY OF OUR AREA INTO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR SATURDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
WETTER OVERALL. WE NOW HAVE POPS IN THE 20-50% RANGE FOR AREA NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH POPS IN THE 50-80% RANGE FOR
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-95. AGAIN, THERE REMAINS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT WILL SWING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF AT KMIV/KACY BY 02Z. VFR,
BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER BY OR AFTER 06Z AS BR DEVELOPS. LIGHT S
TO NEARLY CALM WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, BUT ONLY
INCLUDED VCTS IN KABE/KRDG TAFS FOR NOW. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR, HOWEVER PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL TURN WEST ON FRIDAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR FRIDAY, WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND THE SWELL WEAKENS.
THUS, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, WINDS TURN NORTHERLY, AND THE SWELL REMAINS WEAK.
THUS, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ021-022-025.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/HOEFLICH/MPS/RCM
AVIATION...DESILVA/MPS/RCM
MARINE...DESILVA/MPS/RCM
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