204
FXUS61 KPHI 100840
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
440 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A KEY MESSAGE FOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATED SRF FORECAST AND DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (1/4) IN PLACE BOTH DAYS.
2. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
3. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A MARGINAL RISK
(1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (1/4) IN PLACE BOTH DAYS.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL LESS IMPACTFUL DAY AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A MODEST
INSTABILITY PROFILE, THOUGH SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. MOST OF
THE AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WHICH IS ABOUT RIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED.
IN TERMS OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT TODAY, PWATS WON'T BE AS HIGH
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND THERE IS LESS OF A SIGNAL FOR TRAINING
OF STORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO ALSO LIMIT FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER, IF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO MOVE OVER URBAN AREAS OR AREAS THAT HAVE
SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE LAST WEEK, SOME FLOODING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. OVERALL THOUGH, THE THREAT IS MUCH LOWER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY.
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER FOR SOME OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THINGS SHOULD HAVE STABILIZED BY THAT POINT WITH LITTLE
TO NO RISK OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BISECT OUR
AREA AND CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH, CONTINUING A TREND OF
A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE FINAL DAY OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY GOES ON. THINKING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-76 AND I-195. CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH IS ABOUT RIGHT GIVEN THINGS
SHOULD BE MORE STABLE AND SHEAR REMAINING WEEK. SIMILAR TO TODAY
THOUGH, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS
AND FOR URBAN AREAS. A MARGINAL (1/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FROM PHILLY ON SOUTH. NOT ANTICIPATING TOO
MANY ISSUES, THOUGH IF THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS FOCUSED OVER
CERTAIN AREAS, THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT WILL SWING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A POTENTIAL HOT DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ANYTHING WE EXPERIENCED TO START JULY, BUT STILL NOTEWORTHY
NONETHELESS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOR
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP FOR THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A
MINOR PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDES WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE BEGINNING WITH THE HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUING WITH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE CYCLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE GET TOWARDS THE NEW MOON WHICH COULD
KEEP ELEVATED TIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREAS
MOST AT RISK OF SEEING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY. THE SEVERITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR LEVELS BUT WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS
TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS. NO PLANS FOR ADVISORIES YET BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE FOR SOME COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING
NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE DELAWARE RIVER WITH THE UPCOMING ELEVATED TIDES. NO TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE, MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. AREAS THAT
SAW A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE
FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 11Z-12Z BEFORE FOG AND ANY
STRATUS MIXES OUT. THINKING THIS IS CONCENTRATED OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND I-95 TERMINALS AS THE SOUTH JERSEY TERMINALS HAVE
ACTUALLY SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATELY. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR AFTER 12Z WITH FOG DISSIPATING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS EVEN TRENDED DOWN A
BIT IN TERMS OF COVERAGE. AS A RESULT, ENDED UP GOING WITH VCSH
GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE I-95 AND LEHIGH VALLEY TERMINALS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TERMINAL BETWEEN
18Z-00Z IS AROUND 30-40%. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD
OFF AROUND KMIV/KACY UNTIL TONIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT....PRIMARILY VFR. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (30-40%) THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KACY/KMIV.
CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/IFR DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH
PATCHY FOG (15-20% CHANCE) BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
UNDER 5 KT THOUGH A WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION MAY BE FAVORED AT
TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, THOUGH ANOTHER DAY OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY FOR THE I-95 AND SOUTH JERSEY TERMINALS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WHILE WE HAVE MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS, LOW WAVE HEIGHTS
AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A LOW
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS WILL ALSO REMAIN
BUT WITH RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS (1 TO 2 FOOT BREAKERS),
THINKING THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW AT ALL SHORE POINTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
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