908
FXUS61 KPHI 101723
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
123 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
2. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
3. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST,
CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER DELMARVA AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, AND THEN ANOTHER WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, FIRST IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THEN SPREADING EAST INTO
THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND PWATS 1.75-2.00
INCHES. PWATS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THEY WERE ON THURSDAY, SO
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IT WAS ON
THURSDAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE
URBANIZED AREAS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL
RISK (1 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM
NEWARK TO PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE UP TO
1000 J/KG EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT UPWARDS OF 1500 J/K
NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STRONGEST AND MOST ORGANIZED STORMS TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER DELMARVA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC, WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ON THAT FRONT AND PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL,
AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY, INCLUDING
PHILADELPHIA, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, THE EASTERN SHORES OF
MARYLAND, AND DELAWARE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT WILL
SWING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEDIUM TO
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A POTENTIAL HOT DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE ANYTHING WE EXPERIENCED TO START JULY, BUT STILL NOTEWORTHY
NONETHELESS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOR
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP FOR THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A
MINOR PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDES WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE BEGINNING WITH THE HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUING WITH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE GET TOWARDS THE NEW MOON WHICH COULD
KEEP ELEVATED TIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREAS
MOST AT RISK OF SEEING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY. THE SEVERITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR LEVELS BUT WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS
TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS. NO PLANS FOR ADVISORIES YET BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE FOR SOME COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING
NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE DELAWARE RIVER WITH THE UPCOMING ELEVATED TIDES. NO TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR, HOWEVER, BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS,
POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR, IN SHRA/TSRA, MAINLY ON THE I-95
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AND WEST (KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG).
WILL KEEP THE PROB30 GROUPS. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ANY GIVEN STORM PASSING OVER A GIVEN TERMINAL AT ANY TIME.
TONIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA TAPER OFF. SOME MVFR CONDS IN SHRA AT
KMIV/KACY. BR DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDS. LGT/VRB
WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING, THEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, THOUGH ANOTHER DAY OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY FOR THE I-95 AND SOUTH JERSEY TERMINALS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN WINDS
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THIS EVENING, THEN FOG DEVELOPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WHILE WE HAVE MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS, LOW WAVE HEIGHTS
AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A LOW
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS WILL ALSO REMAIN
BUT WITH RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS (1 TO 2 FOOT BREAKERS),
THINKING THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW AT ALL SHORE POINTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/MPS
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MPS
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