026
FXUS61 KPHI 110521
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
121 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
2. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
3. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST,
CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER DELMARVA AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, AND THEN ANOTHER WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, FIRST IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THEN SPREADING EAST INTO
THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND PWATS 1.75-2.00
INCHES. PWATS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THEY WERE ON THURSDAY, SO
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IT WAS ON
THURSDAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE
URBANIZED AREAS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL
RISK (1 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM
NEWARK TO PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE UP TO
1000 J/KG EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT UPWARDS OF 1500 J/K
NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STRONGEST AND MOST ORGANIZED STORMS TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER DELMARVA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC, WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ON THAT FRONT AND PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL,
AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY, INCLUDING
PHILADELPHIA, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, THE EASTERN SHORES OF
MARYLAND, AND DELAWARE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH REGARDS TO THE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIODS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH THE
HIGH PREVAILING, AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE HEAT ACROSS THE
PLAINS, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S MOST AREAS. ADD FIVE DEGREES
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY 90S FOR THE REGION. THE DEW POINTS
SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S AT TIMES. THIS
WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS HEAT EVENT
BUT STILL ENOUGH TO SUGGEST HEAT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOR
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP FOR THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A
MINOR PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDES WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE BEGINNING WITH THE HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUING WITH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE GET TOWARDS THE NEW MOON WHICH COULD
KEEP ELEVATED TIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREAS
MOST AT RISK OF SEEING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY. THE SEVERITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR LEVELS BUT WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS
TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS. NO PLANS FOR ADVISORIES YET BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE FOR SOME COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING
NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE DELAWARE RIVER WITH THE UPCOMING ELEVATED TIDES. NO TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...PRIMARILY VFR BUT SOME PATCHY
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP (OR IN KMIV'S CASE ALREADY HAS
DEVELOPED). NOT EXPECTING FOG AND STRATUS TO RESULT IN AS LOW
CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY, BUT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE (40-50%) OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTH JERSEY
TERMINALS. GIVEN THAT NO NEW RAIN FELL OVER THE I-95 TERMINALS
TODAY, THINGS ARE A BIT MORE DRY AT THE SURFACE AND THE
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS ONLY AROUND 10-15% FOR FOG AT
KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN WHICH IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ANY FOG DISSIPATES NOT
LONG AFTER DAYBREAK AND BY 11Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM BUT A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION MAY BE
FAVORED AT TIMES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR TO START AND THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. HAVE ADDED TSRA AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE
HIGHER FROM KPHL ON SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 23Z
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS WILL START NORTHERLY AROUND
5 TO 10 KT AND THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING, STILL AROUND 5 TO 10 KT THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
LATE, ESPECIALLY WHERE AREAS TODAY SEE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SOME
DRIER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING IN, WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN WINDS
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THIS EVENING, THEN FOG DEVELOPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS,
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW-END SCA GUSTS
MAY OCCUR ON THE OCEAN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY, FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. MULTIPLE WEAK SWELL GROUPS AROUND, BUT
WITH RELATIVELY CALM SURF (1 TO 3 FOOT BREAKERS). RIP CURRENT
RISK REMAINS LOW AT ALL SHORE POINTS.
FOR SUNDAY, LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WITH WINDS AROUND 10
MPH. MULTIPLE WEAK SWELL GROUPS LINGER WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT BREAKERS
AGAIN. RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW AT ALL SHORE POINTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/MJL/MPS/OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
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